Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking re-election, maintains a wide lead in recent polling for the Sergipe gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first round. Surveys from late August through early September, including those by Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and IFP, show him at 40-45% in stimulated scenarios, well ahead of main challenger Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 20-37%, with Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), and others trailing in single digits or lower. Mitidieri's consistent advantage across spontaneous and stimulated questions, combined with his incumbency and regional support patterns, has driven trader consensus toward a high probability of victory, potentially in the first round. Minor candidates and any late shifts in undecided voters remain the primary variables before voting begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFábio 90%
Valmir de Francisquinho 10%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$19,681 Vol.
$19,681 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Fábio
90%
Valmir de Francisquinho
10%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
1%
Emanuel Cacho
<1%
Dr. Helton
<1%
Ricardo Marques
<1%
Fábio 90%
Valmir de Francisquinho 10%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$19,681 Vol.
$19,681 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Fábio
$15,588 Vol.
90%
Valmir de Francisquinho
$1,713 Vol.
10%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
$637 Vol.
1%
Emanuel Cacho
$618 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Helton
$682 Vol.
<1%
Ricardo Marques
$443 Vol.
<1%
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking re-election, maintains a wide lead in recent polling for the Sergipe gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first round. Surveys from late August through early September, including those by Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and IFP, show him at 40-45% in stimulated scenarios, well ahead of main challenger Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 20-37%, with Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), and others trailing in single digits or lower. Mitidieri's consistent advantage across spontaneous and stimulated questions, combined with his incumbency and regional support patterns, has driven trader consensus toward a high probability of victory, potentially in the first round. Minor candidates and any late shifts in undecided voters remain the primary variables before voting begins.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$19,681End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking re-election, maintains a wide lead in recent polling for the Sergipe gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first round. Surveys from late August through early September, including those by Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and IFP, show him at 40-45% in stimulated scenarios, well ahead of main challenger Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 20-37%, with Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), and others trailing in single digits or lower. Mitidieri's consistent advantage across spontaneous and stimulated questions, combined with his incumbency and regional support patterns, has driven trader consensus toward a high probability of victory, potentially in the first round. Minor candidates and any late shifts in undecided voters remain the primary variables before voting begins.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$19,681End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Fábio Mitidieri, the incumbent PSD governor seeking re-election, maintains a wide lead in recent polling for the Sergipe gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first round. Surveys from late August through early September, including those by Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and IFP, show him at 40-45% in stimulated scenarios, well ahead of main challenger Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 20-37%, with Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), and others trailing in single digits or lower. Mitidieri's consistent advantage across spontaneous and stimulated questions, combined with his incumbency and regional support patterns, has driven trader consensus toward a high probability of victory, potentially in the first round. Minor candidates and any late shifts in undecided voters remain the primary variables before voting begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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