Recent AtlasIntel and Quaest surveys show Lula (PT) holding 50-52% support for first-round votes in Paraíba, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 21-28% and lower figures for Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado. This aligns with Lula’s strong historical performance in the Northeast, where he captured over 64% in the 2022 first round, alongside current government approval near 55-56% and elevated rejection levels for leading opponents. Traders price Lula at 96.5% to finish first, reflecting these state-level patterns and limited movement in recent polling. Late-campaign events such as major scandals, sharp economic shifts, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters could still narrow the gap before October voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 96.5%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$36,858 Vol.
$36,858 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
97%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Zema
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Lula 96.5%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$36,858 Vol.
$36,858 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$30,629 Vol.
97%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$739 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$492 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$492 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$492 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$492 Vol.
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$513 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$492 Vol.
1%
Samara
$492 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$492 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$544 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$497 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$492 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel and Quaest surveys show Lula (PT) holding 50-52% support for first-round votes in Paraíba, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 21-28% and lower figures for Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado. This aligns with Lula’s strong historical performance in the Northeast, where he captured over 64% in the 2022 first round, alongside current government approval near 55-56% and elevated rejection levels for leading opponents. Traders price Lula at 96.5% to finish first, reflecting these state-level patterns and limited movement in recent polling. Late-campaign events such as major scandals, sharp economic shifts, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters could still narrow the gap before October voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$36,858End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel and Quaest surveys show Lula (PT) holding 50-52% support for first-round votes in Paraíba, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 21-28% and lower figures for Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado. This aligns with Lula’s strong historical performance in the Northeast, where he captured over 64% in the 2022 first round, alongside current government approval near 55-56% and elevated rejection levels for leading opponents. Traders price Lula at 96.5% to finish first, reflecting these state-level patterns and limited movement in recent polling. Late-campaign events such as major scandals, sharp economic shifts, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters could still narrow the gap before October voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$36,858End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AtlasIntel and Quaest surveys show Lula (PT) holding 50-52% support for first-round votes in Paraíba, well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 21-28% and lower figures for Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado. This aligns with Lula’s strong historical performance in the Northeast, where he captured over 64% in the 2022 first round, alongside current government approval near 55-56% and elevated rejection levels for leading opponents. Traders price Lula at 96.5% to finish first, reflecting these state-level patterns and limited movement in recent polling. Late-campaign events such as major scandals, sharp economic shifts, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters could still narrow the gap before October voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions