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icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner

Lula 90%

Flavio Bolsonaro 10%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Renan Santos <1%

Polymarket

$22,885 Vol.

Lula 90%

Flavio Bolsonaro 10%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Renan Santos <1%

Polymarket

$22,885 Vol.

icon for Lula

Lula

$9,195 Vol.

90%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$4,774 Vol.

10%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$1,427 Vol.

1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$2,243 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$1,985 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$477 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$288 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$296 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$296 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$316 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$259 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$546 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$783 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential contest, with recent Datafolha, Quaest, PoderData, and AtlasIntel surveys placing him in the high 30s to low 40s percent, well ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s and all other contenders in single digits. The right-wing vote remains fragmented among Flávio, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and rising outsider Augusto Cury, preventing any challenger from mounting a serious plurality threat. Free electoral broadcasts began August 28 and multiple debates have followed, yet polling aggregates show no meaningful shift that narrows Lula’s lead enough to alter first-round expectations. Traders price these dynamics into the 90 percent consensus for Lula, consistent with historical patterns where the incumbent’s base and superior organization deliver first-round advantages when opposition support splits.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$22,885
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential contest, with recent Datafolha, Quaest, PoderData, and AtlasIntel surveys placing him in the high 30s to low 40s percent, well ahead of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s and all other contenders in single digits. The right-wing vote remains fragmented among Flávio, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and rising outsider Augusto Cury, preventing any challenger from mounting a serious plurality threat. Free electoral broadcasts began August 28 and multiple debates have followed, yet polling aggregates show no meaningful shift that narrows Lula’s lead enough to alter first-round expectations. Traders price these dynamics into the 90 percent consensus for Lula, consistent with historical patterns where the incumbent’s base and superior organization deliver first-round advantages when opposition support splits.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$22,885
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

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icon for Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

53%
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lula" at 90%, followed by "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 90¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner" has generated $22.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 31, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner" is "Lula" at 90%, meaning the market assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.