Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Global Elections

Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Global Elections

Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place

Marília Campos 55%

Aécio Neves 40.9%

Carlos Viana 2.9%

Domingos Sávio <1%

Polymarket

$41,920 Vol.

Marília Campos 55%

Aécio Neves 40.9%

Carlos Viana 2.9%

Domingos Sávio <1%

Polymarket

$41,920 Vol.

icon for Marília Campos

Marília Campos

$15,666 Vol.

55%

icon for Aécio Neves

Aécio Neves

$3,566 Vol.

41%

icon for Carlos Viana

Carlos Viana

$8,788 Vol.

3%

icon for Domingos Sávio

Domingos Sávio

$1,890 Vol.

1%

icon for Marcelo Heringer

Marcelo Heringer

$1,125 Vol.

<1%

icon for Manoel Carvalho

Manoel Carvalho

$702 Vol.

<1%

icon for Áurea Carolina

Áurea Carolina

$1,183 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gustavo Galassi

Gustavo Galassi

$601 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jordano Metalúrgico

Jordano Metalúrgico

$643 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juiz Ramon Moreira

Juiz Ramon Moreira

$616 Vol.

<1%

icon for Marcelo Aro

Marcelo Aro

$2,861 Vol.

<1%

icon for Marco Antônio Superman

Marco Antônio Superman

$693 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tião Pessoa

Tião Pessoa

$623 Vol.

<1%

icon for Victória Mello Vic

Victória Mello Vic

$682 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ana Luiza do MLB

Ana Luiza do MLB

$546 Vol.

<1%

icon for Arcanjo Pimenta

Arcanjo Pimenta

$536 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carlin Moura

Carlin Moura

$552 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fidélis Alcântara

Fidélis Alcântara

$648 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Campos (PT) holds the leading position in recent polling for first place in Minas Gerais's 2026 Senate race, reflecting her consistent edge in Genial/Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and DataTempo surveys from June through late August. These show her at 16-24% depending on the scenario, ahead of Aécio Neves (PSDB) at 13-16% and a cluster including Carlos Viana (PSD), Marcelo Aro (PP), and Domingos Sávio (PL) who remain within the margin of error for second. High undecided and blank/null shares (often 20%+) keep the contest fluid ahead of the October vote, while Marília's resignation from the Contagem mayoralty in March and ongoing regional campaigning reinforce her visibility. Aécio's established profile and informal "Marécio" alliance discussions provide counter-momentum, but no major late shifts have yet altered the trader consensus around her front-runner status.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$41,920
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Campos (PT) holds the leading position in recent polling for first place in Minas Gerais's 2026 Senate race, reflecting her consistent edge in Genial/Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and DataTempo surveys from June through late August. These show her at 16-24% depending on the scenario, ahead of Aécio Neves (PSDB) at 13-16% and a cluster including Carlos Viana (PSD), Marcelo Aro (PP), and Domingos Sávio (PL) who remain within the margin of error for second. High undecided and blank/null shares (often 20%+) keep the contest fluid ahead of the October vote, while Marília's resignation from the Contagem mayoralty in March and ongoing regional campaigning reinforce her visibility. Aécio's established profile and informal "Marécio" alliance discussions provide counter-momentum, but no major late shifts have yet altered the trader consensus around her front-runner status.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Minas Gerais is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$41,920
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will Marília Campos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?

Will Marília Campos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?

35%
icon for Will Mauro Mendes win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?

Will Mauro Mendes win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?

64%
icon for Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?

Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?

79%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 18 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Marília Campos" at 56%, followed by "Aécio Neves" at 41%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place" has generated $41.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place," browse the 18 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place" is "Marília Campos" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Aécio Neves" at 41%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.