Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF brigadier general Ofer Winter, draws support primarily from voters aligned with Likud and Religious Zionism amid ongoing fragmentation on the right ahead of the October 27 election. Recent polls from late August and early September project the party between four and six Knesset seats in most surveys, with some showing it passing the 3.25% threshold at four or five mandates while others place it slightly lower or higher. This range aligns with the tight trader consensus around 4-6 versus under four seats, as the party's voter base remains fluid and sensitive to shifts among competing right-wing lists. The September 9 deadline for final party lists and continued polling volatility represent the main near-term catalysts that could separate the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4-6 45%
<4 42%
7-9 16%
10+ 7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<4
42%
4-6
45%
7-9
16%
10+
7%
4-6 45%
<4 42%
7-9 16%
10+ 7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<4
$0 Vol.
42%
4-6
$0 Vol.
45%
7-9
$0 Vol.
16%
10+
$275 Vol.
7%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF brigadier general Ofer Winter, draws support primarily from voters aligned with Likud and Religious Zionism amid ongoing fragmentation on the right ahead of the October 27 election. Recent polls from late August and early September project the party between four and six Knesset seats in most surveys, with some showing it passing the 3.25% threshold at four or five mandates while others place it slightly lower or higher. This range aligns with the tight trader consensus around 4-6 versus under four seats, as the party's voter base remains fluid and sensitive to shifts among competing right-wing lists. The September 9 deadline for final party lists and continued polling volatility represent the main near-term catalysts that could separate the leading outcomes.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$275End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF brigadier general Ofer Winter, draws support primarily from voters aligned with Likud and Religious Zionism amid ongoing fragmentation on the right ahead of the October 27 election. Recent polls from late August and early September project the party between four and six Knesset seats in most surveys, with some showing it passing the 3.25% threshold at four or five mandates while others place it slightly lower or higher. This range aligns with the tight trader consensus around 4-6 versus under four seats, as the party's voter base remains fluid and sensitive to shifts among competing right-wing lists. The September 9 deadline for final party lists and continued polling volatility represent the main near-term catalysts that could separate the leading outcomes.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$275End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF brigadier general Ofer Winter, draws support primarily from voters aligned with Likud and Religious Zionism amid ongoing fragmentation on the right ahead of the October 27 election. Recent polls from late August and early September project the party between four and six Knesset seats in most surveys, with some showing it passing the 3.25% threshold at four or five mandates while others place it slightly lower or higher. This range aligns with the tight trader consensus around 4-6 versus under four seats, as the party's voter base remains fluid and sensitive to shifts among competing right-wing lists. The September 9 deadline for final party lists and continued polling volatility represent the main near-term catalysts that could separate the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions