**Israeli officials have tied any broader redeployment of forces beyond the Litani River to verifiable disarmament of Hezbollah and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) deployment in designated areas, as outlined in the June 26, 2026, US-brokered trilateral framework agreement.** This deal established two limited pilot zones—one north and one south of the river—for phased, conditions-based withdrawals after confirmed progress on dismantling non-state armed group infrastructure. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz have stated that the IDF will maintain its expanded security zone in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah no longer poses a threat, with no fixed timetable for further pullbacks. Implementation of the pilots has proceeded slowly, with Israeli statements emphasizing weeks-long timelines and continued freedom of action against threats. Trader consensus on withdrawal probabilities by specific deadlines reflects these structural conditions, LAF capacity to enforce control, and any new diplomatic or military developments in the coming months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsraeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
$1,191,765 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
17%
$1,191,765 Vol.
December 31
$350,547 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.**Israeli officials have tied any broader redeployment of forces beyond the Litani River to verifiable disarmament of Hezbollah and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) deployment in designated areas, as outlined in the June 26, 2026, US-brokered trilateral framework agreement.** This deal established two limited pilot zones—one north and one south of the river—for phased, conditions-based withdrawals after confirmed progress on dismantling non-state armed group infrastructure. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz have stated that the IDF will maintain its expanded security zone in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah no longer poses a threat, with no fixed timetable for further pullbacks. Implementation of the pilots has proceeded slowly, with Israeli statements emphasizing weeks-long timelines and continued freedom of action against threats. Trader consensus on withdrawal probabilities by specific deadlines reflects these structural conditions, LAF capacity to enforce control, and any new diplomatic or military developments in the coming months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ET
Volume
$1,191,765End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.**Israeli officials have tied any broader redeployment of forces beyond the Litani River to verifiable disarmament of Hezbollah and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) deployment in designated areas, as outlined in the June 26, 2026, US-brokered trilateral framework agreement.** This deal established two limited pilot zones—one north and one south of the river—for phased, conditions-based withdrawals after confirmed progress on dismantling non-state armed group infrastructure. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz have stated that the IDF will maintain its expanded security zone in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah no longer poses a threat, with no fixed timetable for further pullbacks. Implementation of the pilots has proceeded slowly, with Israeli statements emphasizing weeks-long timelines and continued freedom of action against threats. Trader consensus on withdrawal probabilities by specific deadlines reflects these structural conditions, LAF capacity to enforce control, and any new diplomatic or military developments in the coming months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$1,191,765End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 9:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Israeli officials have tied any broader redeployment of forces beyond the Litani River to verifiable disarmament of Hezbollah and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) deployment in designated areas, as outlined in the June 26, 2026, US-brokered trilateral framework agreement.** This deal established two limited pilot zones—one north and one south of the river—for phased, conditions-based withdrawals after confirmed progress on dismantling non-state armed group infrastructure. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz have stated that the IDF will maintain its expanded security zone in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah no longer poses a threat, with no fixed timetable for further pullbacks. Implementation of the pilots has proceeded slowly, with Israeli statements emphasizing weeks-long timelines and continued freedom of action against threats. Trader consensus on withdrawal probabilities by specific deadlines reflects these structural conditions, LAF capacity to enforce control, and any new diplomatic or military developments in the coming months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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