**Trader consensus assigns an 84% probability to the USD/IRR rate exceeding 2.2 million rials per dollar by end-September 2026, with other brackets (2.1–2.2M at 9%, lower ranges totaling ~7%) reflecting limited expectations of stabilization or appreciation.** This positioning stems from intensified U.S. economic measures against Iran. In late August 2026, the Treasury launched Operation Economic Outcast, targeting shadow-fleet vessels, facilitators, and networks involved in oil smuggling and sanctions evasion. These actions followed earlier 2026 conflict-related disruptions, including a naval blockade that sharply reduced Iranian crude exports and revenues. Reports from early September note the rial reaching record lows amid 25–35% drops in trade, persistent high inflation, and constrained access to foreign currency. With limited signs of near-term diplomatic relief or sanctions easing before month-end, traders view further depreciation as the base case, consistent with historical responses to sustained external pressure on Iran's oil-dependent economy and parallel-market dynamics. Scheduled events or policy shifts within the narrow resolution window remain the primary variables that could alter this trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUSD x Iranian rials End of September?
USD x Iranian rials End of September?
2.2M+ 84%
2.1-2.2M 9.0%
1.8-1.9M 2.5%
2.0-2.1M 1.8%
$22,054 Vol.
$22,054 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<1.7M
1%
1.7-1.8M
1%
1.8-1.9M
3%
1.9-2.0M
2%
2.0-2.1M
2%
2.1-2.2M
9%
2.2M+
84%
2.2M+ 84%
2.1-2.2M 9.0%
1.8-1.9M 2.5%
2.0-2.1M 1.8%
$22,054 Vol.
$22,054 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<1.7M
$1,019 Vol.
1%
1.7-1.8M
$959 Vol.
1%
1.8-1.9M
$1,029 Vol.
3%
1.9-2.0M
$2,430 Vol.
2%
2.0-2.1M
$3,393 Vol.
2%
2.1-2.2M
$2,148 Vol.
9%
2.2M+
$11,076 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for September 30, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.**Trader consensus assigns an 84% probability to the USD/IRR rate exceeding 2.2 million rials per dollar by end-September 2026, with other brackets (2.1–2.2M at 9%, lower ranges totaling ~7%) reflecting limited expectations of stabilization or appreciation.**
This positioning stems from intensified U.S. economic measures against Iran. In late August 2026, the Treasury launched Operation Economic Outcast, targeting shadow-fleet vessels, facilitators, and networks involved in oil smuggling and sanctions evasion. These actions followed earlier 2026 conflict-related disruptions, including a naval blockade that sharply reduced Iranian crude exports and revenues.
Reports from early September note the rial reaching record lows amid 25–35% drops in trade, persistent high inflation, and constrained access to foreign currency. With limited signs of near-term diplomatic relief or sanctions easing before month-end, traders view further depreciation as the base case, consistent with historical responses to sustained external pressure on Iran's oil-dependent economy and parallel-market dynamics. Scheduled events or policy shifts within the narrow resolution window remain the primary variables that could alter this trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for September 30, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Volume
$22,054End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for September 30, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.**Trader consensus assigns an 84% probability to the USD/IRR rate exceeding 2.2 million rials per dollar by end-September 2026, with other brackets (2.1–2.2M at 9%, lower ranges totaling ~7%) reflecting limited expectations of stabilization or appreciation.**
This positioning stems from intensified U.S. economic measures against Iran. In late August 2026, the Treasury launched Operation Economic Outcast, targeting shadow-fleet vessels, facilitators, and networks involved in oil smuggling and sanctions evasion. These actions followed earlier 2026 conflict-related disruptions, including a naval blockade that sharply reduced Iranian crude exports and revenues.
Reports from early September note the rial reaching record lows amid 25–35% drops in trade, persistent high inflation, and constrained access to foreign currency. With limited signs of near-term diplomatic relief or sanctions easing before month-end, traders view further depreciation as the base case, consistent with historical responses to sustained external pressure on Iran's oil-dependent economy and parallel-market dynamics. Scheduled events or policy shifts within the narrow resolution window remain the primary variables that could alter this trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for September 30, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$22,054End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus assigns an 84% probability to the USD/IRR rate exceeding 2.2 million rials per dollar by end-September 2026, with other brackets (2.1–2.2M at 9%, lower ranges totaling ~7%) reflecting limited expectations of stabilization or appreciation.** This positioning stems from intensified U.S. economic measures against Iran. In late August 2026, the Treasury launched Operation Economic Outcast, targeting shadow-fleet vessels, facilitators, and networks involved in oil smuggling and sanctions evasion. These actions followed earlier 2026 conflict-related disruptions, including a naval blockade that sharply reduced Iranian crude exports and revenues. Reports from early September note the rial reaching record lows amid 25–35% drops in trade, persistent high inflation, and constrained access to foreign currency. With limited signs of near-term diplomatic relief or sanctions easing before month-end, traders view further depreciation as the base case, consistent with historical responses to sustained external pressure on Iran's oil-dependent economy and parallel-market dynamics. Scheduled events or policy shifts within the narrow resolution window remain the primary variables that could alter this trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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