**Trader consensus on the USD/IRR rate at end-December 2026 clusters tightly between 2.0M–3.0M IRR per dollar because ongoing US sanctions enforcement, reduced Iranian oil exports, and elevated inflation continue to pressure the rial while leaving room for central bank interventions or limited diplomatic shifts.** Recent August 2026 US actions targeting shadow fleets and third-party networks, combined with the naval blockade's impact on hard-currency inflows, have driven free-market rates above 2.2M in early September. These factors support the leading 2.5–3.0M and 2.0–2.5M bins. However, uncertainty over potential de-escalation, Iranian adaptation of export routes, or domestic policy responses keeps probabilities balanced. Further tightening of secondary sanctions or sustained export shortfalls could widen the gap toward higher bins, while any verifiable sanctions relief or export rebound would favor the lower range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.5 - 3.0M 29%
2.0 - 2.5M 28%
<2.0M 18%
3.0 - 3.5M 17%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<2.0M
18%
2.0 - 2.5M
28%
2.5 - 3.0M
29%
3.0 - 3.5M
17%
3.5 - 4.0M
5%
4.0M+
2%
2.5 - 3.0M 29%
2.0 - 2.5M 28%
<2.0M 18%
3.0 - 3.5M 17%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<2.0M
$2,150 Vol.
18%
2.0 - 2.5M
$559 Vol.
28%
2.5 - 3.0M
$605 Vol.
29%
3.0 - 3.5M
$264 Vol.
17%
3.5 - 4.0M
$128 Vol.
5%
4.0M+
$113 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.**Trader consensus on the USD/IRR rate at end-December 2026 clusters tightly between 2.0M–3.0M IRR per dollar because ongoing US sanctions enforcement, reduced Iranian oil exports, and elevated inflation continue to pressure the rial while leaving room for central bank interventions or limited diplomatic shifts.**
Recent August 2026 US actions targeting shadow fleets and third-party networks, combined with the naval blockade's impact on hard-currency inflows, have driven free-market rates above 2.2M in early September. These factors support the leading 2.5–3.0M and 2.0–2.5M bins. However, uncertainty over potential de-escalation, Iranian adaptation of export routes, or domestic policy responses keeps probabilities balanced. Further tightening of secondary sanctions or sustained export shortfalls could widen the gap toward higher bins, while any verifiable sanctions relief or export rebound would favor the lower range.
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 6:23 PM ET
Volume
$3,818End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.**Trader consensus on the USD/IRR rate at end-December 2026 clusters tightly between 2.0M–3.0M IRR per dollar because ongoing US sanctions enforcement, reduced Iranian oil exports, and elevated inflation continue to pressure the rial while leaving room for central bank interventions or limited diplomatic shifts.**
Recent August 2026 US actions targeting shadow fleets and third-party networks, combined with the naval blockade's impact on hard-currency inflows, have driven free-market rates above 2.2M in early September. These factors support the leading 2.5–3.0M and 2.0–2.5M bins. However, uncertainty over potential de-escalation, Iranian adaptation of export routes, or domestic policy responses keeps probabilities balanced. Further tightening of secondary sanctions or sustained export shortfalls could widen the gap toward higher bins, while any verifiable sanctions relief or export rebound would favor the lower range.
This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for December 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR).
A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released.
Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$3,818End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the USD/IRR rate at end-December 2026 clusters tightly between 2.0M–3.0M IRR per dollar because ongoing US sanctions enforcement, reduced Iranian oil exports, and elevated inflation continue to pressure the rial while leaving room for central bank interventions or limited diplomatic shifts.** Recent August 2026 US actions targeting shadow fleets and third-party networks, combined with the naval blockade's impact on hard-currency inflows, have driven free-market rates above 2.2M in early September. These factors support the leading 2.5–3.0M and 2.0–2.5M bins. However, uncertainty over potential de-escalation, Iranian adaptation of export routes, or domestic policy responses keeps probabilities balanced. Further tightening of secondary sanctions or sustained export shortfalls could widen the gap toward higher bins, while any verifiable sanctions relief or export rebound would favor the lower range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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