**Market-implied odds favor the official USD/ARS rate closing 2026 above 1600, with 62% probability on 1600+, as traders price in continued gradual depreciation under Argentina’s managed float.** The peso has risen from roughly 1400 early in 2026 to around 1508–1530 in early September, consistent with a crawling band adjusted to recent inflation. Market surveys such as the BCRA’s REM now center December expectations near 1630, while some bank forecasts extend toward 1760, reflecting the inflation differential and reserve-management priorities. Fiscal surpluses and reserve accumulation have anchored stability, yet policy allows measured weakening to preserve competitiveness ahead of 2027 elections. This path aligns with the 25–30% end-2026 inflation consensus and supports the elevated odds on the 1550–1600+ buckets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1600.00+ 63%
1550.00–1599.99 16.5%
1500.00–1549.99 14.0%
1400.00–1449.99 9.7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
<1250.00
5%
1250.00–1299.99
<1%
1300.00–1349.99
<1%
1350.00–1399.99
<1%
1400.00–1449.99
10%
1450.00–1499.99
9%
1500.00–1549.99
14%
1550.00–1599.99
19%
1600.00+
63%
1600.00+ 63%
1550.00–1599.99 16.5%
1500.00–1549.99 14.0%
1400.00–1449.99 9.7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
<1250.00
$536 Vol.
5%
1250.00–1299.99
$826 Vol.
<1%
1300.00–1349.99
$687 Vol.
<1%
1350.00–1399.99
$775 Vol.
<1%
1400.00–1449.99
$1,245 Vol.
10%
1450.00–1499.99
$1,287 Vol.
9%
1500.00–1549.99
$1,294 Vol.
14%
1550.00–1599.99
$769 Vol.
19%
1600.00+
$1,912 Vol.
63%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Market-implied odds favor the official USD/ARS rate closing 2026 above 1600, with 62% probability on 1600+, as traders price in continued gradual depreciation under Argentina’s managed float.**
The peso has risen from roughly 1400 early in 2026 to around 1508–1530 in early September, consistent with a crawling band adjusted to recent inflation. Market surveys such as the BCRA’s REM now center December expectations near 1630, while some bank forecasts extend toward 1760, reflecting the inflation differential and reserve-management priorities. Fiscal surpluses and reserve accumulation have anchored stability, yet policy allows measured weakening to preserve competitiveness ahead of 2027 elections. This path aligns with the 25–30% end-2026 inflation consensus and supports the elevated odds on the 1550–1600+ buckets.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Volume
$9,331End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Market-implied odds favor the official USD/ARS rate closing 2026 above 1600, with 62% probability on 1600+, as traders price in continued gradual depreciation under Argentina’s managed float.**
The peso has risen from roughly 1400 early in 2026 to around 1508–1530 in early September, consistent with a crawling band adjusted to recent inflation. Market surveys such as the BCRA’s REM now center December expectations near 1630, while some bank forecasts extend toward 1760, reflecting the inflation differential and reserve-management priorities. Fiscal surpluses and reserve accumulation have anchored stability, yet policy allows measured weakening to preserve competitiveness ahead of 2027 elections. This path aligns with the 25–30% end-2026 inflation consensus and supports the elevated odds on the 1550–1600+ buckets.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$9,331End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Market-implied odds favor the official USD/ARS rate closing 2026 above 1600, with 62% probability on 1600+, as traders price in continued gradual depreciation under Argentina’s managed float.** The peso has risen from roughly 1400 early in 2026 to around 1508–1530 in early September, consistent with a crawling band adjusted to recent inflation. Market surveys such as the BCRA’s REM now center December expectations near 1630, while some bank forecasts extend toward 1760, reflecting the inflation differential and reserve-management priorities. Fiscal surpluses and reserve accumulation have anchored stability, yet policy allows measured weakening to preserve competitiveness ahead of 2027 elections. This path aligns with the 25–30% end-2026 inflation consensus and supports the elevated odds on the 1550–1600+ buckets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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