**The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and adaptive measures amid severe pressures underpin the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027.** Following the early 2026 leadership transition after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, successor Mojtaba Khamenei consolidated power through August appointments of hardline allies to key security and military posts, including Mohsen Rezaei's roles on the Supreme National Security Council. Security forces suppressed nationwide January protests with high lethality, preventing recurrence, while the regime pursued a US memorandum of understanding for sanctions relief and Hormuz transit implementation. Ongoing economic sanctions, infrastructure strain, and regional isolation have weakened governance capacity without triggering elite fragmentation or sustained mass mobilization sufficient for regime change. Traders price in historical resilience and the absence of decisive tipping events in the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$25,632,672 Vol.
$25,632,672 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$25,632,672 Vol.
$25,632,672 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and adaptive measures amid severe pressures underpin the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027.** Following the early 2026 leadership transition after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, successor Mojtaba Khamenei consolidated power through August appointments of hardline allies to key security and military posts, including Mohsen Rezaei's roles on the Supreme National Security Council. Security forces suppressed nationwide January protests with high lethality, preventing recurrence, while the regime pursued a US memorandum of understanding for sanctions relief and Hormuz transit implementation. Ongoing economic sanctions, infrastructure strain, and regional isolation have weakened governance capacity without triggering elite fragmentation or sustained mass mobilization sufficient for regime change. Traders price in historical resilience and the absence of decisive tipping events in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$25,632,672End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and adaptive measures amid severe pressures underpin the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027.** Following the early 2026 leadership transition after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, successor Mojtaba Khamenei consolidated power through August appointments of hardline allies to key security and military posts, including Mohsen Rezaei's roles on the Supreme National Security Council. Security forces suppressed nationwide January protests with high lethality, preventing recurrence, while the regime pursued a US memorandum of understanding for sanctions relief and Hormuz transit implementation. Ongoing economic sanctions, infrastructure strain, and regional isolation have weakened governance capacity without triggering elite fragmentation or sustained mass mobilization sufficient for regime change. Traders price in historical resilience and the absence of decisive tipping events in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$25,632,672End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and adaptive measures amid severe pressures underpin the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027.** Following the early 2026 leadership transition after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, successor Mojtaba Khamenei consolidated power through August appointments of hardline allies to key security and military posts, including Mohsen Rezaei's roles on the Supreme National Security Council. Security forces suppressed nationwide January protests with high lethality, preventing recurrence, while the regime pursued a US memorandum of understanding for sanctions relief and Hormuz transit implementation. Ongoing economic sanctions, infrastructure strain, and regional isolation have weakened governance capacity without triggering elite fragmentation or sustained mass mobilization sufficient for regime change. Traders price in historical resilience and the absence of decisive tipping events in the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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