The Iranian regime's survival through the February 2026 leadership decapitation, succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, and subsequent U.S.-Israeli military exchanges has anchored trader expectations of continuity through late September. Security institutions, particularly the IRGC and Basij, have maintained control amid economic strain and periodic unrest, while recent diplomatic efforts over the Strait of Hormuz reflect ongoing state functionality rather than breakdown. With only weeks remaining, the short timeframe and absence of verifiable triggers for rapid collapse drive the near-certain "No" consensus. Potential shifts could stem from sudden elite defections, coordinated mass protests overwhelming security forces, or escalated external strikes, though current patterns show institutional resilience and repression containing such risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
1% chance
$1,966,880 Vol.
$1,966,880 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
1% chance
$1,966,880 Vol.
$1,966,880 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the February 2026 leadership decapitation, succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, and subsequent U.S.-Israeli military exchanges has anchored trader expectations of continuity through late September. Security institutions, particularly the IRGC and Basij, have maintained control amid economic strain and periodic unrest, while recent diplomatic efforts over the Strait of Hormuz reflect ongoing state functionality rather than breakdown. With only weeks remaining, the short timeframe and absence of verifiable triggers for rapid collapse drive the near-certain "No" consensus. Potential shifts could stem from sudden elite defections, coordinated mass protests overwhelming security forces, or escalated external strikes, though current patterns show institutional resilience and repression containing such risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$1,966,880End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the February 2026 leadership decapitation, succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, and subsequent U.S.-Israeli military exchanges has anchored trader expectations of continuity through late September. Security institutions, particularly the IRGC and Basij, have maintained control amid economic strain and periodic unrest, while recent diplomatic efforts over the Strait of Hormuz reflect ongoing state functionality rather than breakdown. With only weeks remaining, the short timeframe and absence of verifiable triggers for rapid collapse drive the near-certain "No" consensus. Potential shifts could stem from sudden elite defections, coordinated mass protests overwhelming security forces, or escalated external strikes, though current patterns show institutional resilience and repression containing such risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,966,880End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's survival through the February 2026 leadership decapitation, succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, and subsequent U.S.-Israeli military exchanges has anchored trader expectations of continuity through late September. Security institutions, particularly the IRGC and Basij, have maintained control amid economic strain and periodic unrest, while recent diplomatic efforts over the Strait of Hormuz reflect ongoing state functionality rather than breakdown. With only weeks remaining, the short timeframe and absence of verifiable triggers for rapid collapse drive the near-certain "No" consensus. Potential shifts could stem from sudden elite defections, coordinated mass protests overwhelming security forces, or escalated external strikes, though current patterns show institutional resilience and repression containing such risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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