Lebanon predictions & odds

Geopolitics·Hezbollah

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

$305K Vol.

$114K today

$10.2K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

98%

September 4

$305K Vol.

$114K today

$10.2K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Geopolitics·Israel

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

$238K Vol.

$28.4K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

$238K Vol.

$28.4K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Iran

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

$347K Vol.

$83.9K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

85%

September 30

$347K Vol.

$83.9K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Geopolitics·Iran

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

$8M Vol.

$140K Liq.

238

Ends in 4 months

December 31

$8M Vol.

$140K Liq.

238

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Lebanon

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

$677K Vol.

$274K Liq.

Lebanese Forces (LF)

$677K Vol.

$274K Liq.

Geopolitics·Ceasefire

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

$1.6K Vol.

$30.7K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

17%

September 30

$1.6K Vol.

$30.7K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Geopolitics·Lebanon

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

$32.5K Vol.

$1.3K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

10%

$32.5K Vol.

$1.3K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Israel

Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026?

$1.2K Vol.

$218 Liq.

Ends in 4 months

35%

$1.2K Vol.

$218 Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Abraham Accords

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

$2M Vol.

$202K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Lebanon

$2M Vol.

$202K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Hezbollah

Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?

$139K Vol.

$8.2K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

September 30

$139K Vol.

$8.2K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

Geopolitics·Israel

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

$759K Vol.

$365K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

12%

Lebanon

$759K Vol.

$365K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Middle East

Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

$52.5K Vol.

$130K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

18%

Kuwait

$52.5K Vol.

$130K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Foreign Policy

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

$635K Vol.

$28.5K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

26%

Germany

$635K Vol.

$28.5K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Israel

Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

$1M Vol.

$30.6K Liq.

17%

December 31

$1M Vol.

$30.6K Liq.

Geopolitics·Hezbollah

Israel military action against Beirut by...?

$359K Vol.

$20.5K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

26%

October 31

$359K Vol.

$20.5K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Geopolitics·Israel

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

$942K Vol.

$16.4K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

11%

December 31, 2026

$942K Vol.

$16.4K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Foreign Policy

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

$3M Vol.

$18.6K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

10%

December 31

$3M Vol.

$18.6K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Hezbollah

Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by...?

$53.5K Vol.

$1.5K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

December 31

$53.5K Vol.

$1.5K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Hezbollah

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?

$119K Vol.

$14.9K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

December 31

$119K Vol.

$14.9K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Geopolitics·Hezbollah

Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?

$98.0K Vol.

$9.5K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

September 30

$98.0K Vol.

$9.5K Liq.

Ends in 25 days

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Event Status

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Lebanon.

Polymarket currently hosts 500 active markets for Lebanon that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Israel military action against Lebanon on...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $19.1M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 5% chance to December 31. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Lebanon predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.

Polymarket is accurate more than 94% of the time an entire month before an outcome is definitively known. Prediction markets aggregate wisdom from informed users, often outperforming experts. For more context, view these stats on Polymarket’s accuracy.

Yes. You can treat this page as a live data source and watch how the odds for Lebanon shift in real-time. It’s a free way to track market sentiment on major outcomes like “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?” without ever needing to place a trade.

Sign up and fund your account with crypto, credit/debit card, or bank transfer. Browse the Lebanon prediction markets, and when you’re ready you can buy shares in your picks.

Market resolution relies on trusted or official data sources. For complete clarity, you can check the “Rules” section on any individual market page like “Israel military action against Lebanon on...?,” to see the exact criteria and sources used to determine the winner.

Frequently Asked Questions

Sign up and fund your account with crypto, credit/debit card, or bank transfer. Browse the Lebanon prediction markets, and when you’re ready you can buy shares in your picks.

Lebanon predictions & odds

Frequently Asked Questions

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What types of Lebanon prediction markets can I trade on Polymarket?

How do Lebanon markets work on Polymarket?

What is the current top Lebanon prediction?

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Polymarket?

What types of Lebanon prediction markets can I trade on Polymarket?

How do Lebanon markets work on Polymarket?

What is the current top Lebanon prediction?

Why use Polymarket for Lebanon predictions?

How accurate are Polymarket’s Lebanon odds?

Can I track Lebanon predictions without trading?

How do I get started with Lebanon markets on Polymarket?

How are markets resolved?

Lebanon predictions & odds