Saudi Arabia’s insistence on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood remains the central barrier to any new accession before 2027, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and senior officials repeating this condition in 2025–2026 statements. U.S. efforts to link a Saudi civilian nuclear agreement to normalization, including President Trump’s July 2026 public condition on the signed framework, have not altered Riyadh’s position. Regional dynamics, including Saudi defense cooperation with Pakistan and Turkey plus intra-Gulf tensions, have further reduced momentum. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession marked the last expansion, while no other candidates have advanced formal talks. With roughly four months remaining and these structural obstacles intact, trader pricing reflects the low probability of a new signatory by the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
10% chance
$302,620 Vol.
$302,620 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
10% chance
$302,620 Vol.
$302,620 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Saudi Arabia’s insistence on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood remains the central barrier to any new accession before 2027, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and senior officials repeating this condition in 2025–2026 statements. U.S. efforts to link a Saudi civilian nuclear agreement to normalization, including President Trump’s July 2026 public condition on the signed framework, have not altered Riyadh’s position. Regional dynamics, including Saudi defense cooperation with Pakistan and Turkey plus intra-Gulf tensions, have further reduced momentum. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession marked the last expansion, while no other candidates have advanced formal talks. With roughly four months remaining and these structural obstacles intact, trader pricing reflects the low probability of a new signatory by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$302,620End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Saudi Arabia’s insistence on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood remains the central barrier to any new accession before 2027, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and senior officials repeating this condition in 2025–2026 statements. U.S. efforts to link a Saudi civilian nuclear agreement to normalization, including President Trump’s July 2026 public condition on the signed framework, have not altered Riyadh’s position. Regional dynamics, including Saudi defense cooperation with Pakistan and Turkey plus intra-Gulf tensions, have further reduced momentum. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession marked the last expansion, while no other candidates have advanced formal talks. With roughly four months remaining and these structural obstacles intact, trader pricing reflects the low probability of a new signatory by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$302,620End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Saudi Arabia’s insistence on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood remains the central barrier to any new accession before 2027, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and senior officials repeating this condition in 2025–2026 statements. U.S. efforts to link a Saudi civilian nuclear agreement to normalization, including President Trump’s July 2026 public condition on the signed framework, have not altered Riyadh’s position. Regional dynamics, including Saudi defense cooperation with Pakistan and Turkey plus intra-Gulf tensions, have further reduced momentum. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession marked the last expansion, while no other candidates have advanced formal talks. With roughly four months remaining and these structural obstacles intact, trader pricing reflects the low probability of a new signatory by the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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