**No new country is expected to join the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, as reflected in the 95% trader consensus for “No.”** The most recent accession was Kazakhstan in late 2025, which largely formalized preexisting ties. Potential major additions such as Saudi Arabia remain blocked by Riyadh’s longstanding requirement for a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a condition unchanged despite U.S. efforts to link it to nuclear cooperation or post-Iran conflict diplomacy. Public sentiment across Arab states has stayed negative following the Gaza conflict, reducing political space for rapid normalization. No active bilateral talks or scheduled announcements point to a signing in the narrow remaining window, and structural barriers including electoral timelines and regional security dynamics further limit near-term prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
6% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**No new country is expected to join the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, as reflected in the 95% trader consensus for “No.”**
The most recent accession was Kazakhstan in late 2025, which largely formalized preexisting ties. Potential major additions such as Saudi Arabia remain blocked by Riyadh’s longstanding requirement for a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a condition unchanged despite U.S. efforts to link it to nuclear cooperation or post-Iran conflict diplomacy. Public sentiment across Arab states has stayed negative following the Gaza conflict, reducing political space for rapid normalization. No active bilateral talks or scheduled announcements point to a signing in the narrow remaining window, and structural barriers including electoral timelines and regional security dynamics further limit near-term prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$3,088End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**No new country is expected to join the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, as reflected in the 95% trader consensus for “No.”**
The most recent accession was Kazakhstan in late 2025, which largely formalized preexisting ties. Potential major additions such as Saudi Arabia remain blocked by Riyadh’s longstanding requirement for a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a condition unchanged despite U.S. efforts to link it to nuclear cooperation or post-Iran conflict diplomacy. Public sentiment across Arab states has stayed negative following the Gaza conflict, reducing political space for rapid normalization. No active bilateral talks or scheduled announcements point to a signing in the narrow remaining window, and structural barriers including electoral timelines and regional security dynamics further limit near-term prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,208End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No new country is expected to join the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, as reflected in the 95% trader consensus for “No.”** The most recent accession was Kazakhstan in late 2025, which largely formalized preexisting ties. Potential major additions such as Saudi Arabia remain blocked by Riyadh’s longstanding requirement for a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a condition unchanged despite U.S. efforts to link it to nuclear cooperation or post-Iran conflict diplomacy. Public sentiment across Arab states has stayed negative following the Gaza conflict, reducing political space for rapid normalization. No active bilateral talks or scheduled announcements point to a signing in the narrow remaining window, and structural barriers including electoral timelines and regional security dynamics further limit near-term prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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