Israel’s government has prioritized de facto control through settlement expansion, outpost legalization, and administrative measures such as state land declarations and land registration in Area C, rather than formal sovereignty legislation. Recent actions, including new settlement inaugurations and seizure orders in 2026, align with long-term policy under ministers favoring integration of territory but stop short of Knesset votes to extend Israeli law or sovereignty before year-end. Netanyahu has previously delayed or opposed such bills amid U.S. opposition and coalition dynamics, while elections expected later in 2026 add further uncertainty. Traders assign 95.5% probability to no formal annexation before 2027 because the short timeline and diplomatic constraints favor incremental steps over a binding declaration. Late developments such as a sudden security crisis or U.S. policy shift could still alter this trajectory.