The extended procedural timeline in the South Africa v. Israel case at the International Court of Justice underpins trader expectations that no final ruling on genocide will occur by the end of 2027. In May 2026 the Court set November 2027 for South Africa’s reply and May 2029 for Israel’s rejoinder, pushing any hearings and judgment on the merits well beyond the market’s resolution date. Israel has contested jurisdiction in its counter-memorial, and the case remains in the written-pleadings phase with no merits decision anticipated before the late 2020s. Separate International Criminal Court arrest warrants target war crimes and crimes against humanity rather than genocide. Recent South African submissions on provisional-measures compliance, including an August 2026 dossier, address ongoing obligations but do not accelerate a definitive finding of state responsibility. The high evidentiary threshold for proving genocidal intent further supports the current implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated13% chance
$99,447 Vol.
$99,447 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
13% chance
$99,447 Vol.
$99,447 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The extended procedural timeline in the South Africa v. Israel case at the International Court of Justice underpins trader expectations that no final ruling on genocide will occur by the end of 2027. In May 2026 the Court set November 2027 for South Africa’s reply and May 2029 for Israel’s rejoinder, pushing any hearings and judgment on the merits well beyond the market’s resolution date. Israel has contested jurisdiction in its counter-memorial, and the case remains in the written-pleadings phase with no merits decision anticipated before the late 2020s. Separate International Criminal Court arrest warrants target war crimes and crimes against humanity rather than genocide. Recent South African submissions on provisional-measures compliance, including an August 2026 dossier, address ongoing obligations but do not accelerate a definitive finding of state responsibility. The high evidentiary threshold for proving genocidal intent further supports the current implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Volume
$99,447End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The extended procedural timeline in the South Africa v. Israel case at the International Court of Justice underpins trader expectations that no final ruling on genocide will occur by the end of 2027. In May 2026 the Court set November 2027 for South Africa’s reply and May 2029 for Israel’s rejoinder, pushing any hearings and judgment on the merits well beyond the market’s resolution date. Israel has contested jurisdiction in its counter-memorial, and the case remains in the written-pleadings phase with no merits decision anticipated before the late 2020s. Separate International Criminal Court arrest warrants target war crimes and crimes against humanity rather than genocide. Recent South African submissions on provisional-measures compliance, including an August 2026 dossier, address ongoing obligations but do not accelerate a definitive finding of state responsibility. The high evidentiary threshold for proving genocidal intent further supports the current implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$99,447End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The extended procedural timeline in the South Africa v. Israel case at the International Court of Justice underpins trader expectations that no final ruling on genocide will occur by the end of 2027. In May 2026 the Court set November 2027 for South Africa’s reply and May 2029 for Israel’s rejoinder, pushing any hearings and judgment on the merits well beyond the market’s resolution date. Israel has contested jurisdiction in its counter-memorial, and the case remains in the written-pleadings phase with no merits decision anticipated before the late 2020s. Separate International Criminal Court arrest warrants target war crimes and crimes against humanity rather than genocide. Recent South African submissions on provisional-measures compliance, including an August 2026 dossier, address ongoing obligations but do not accelerate a definitive finding of state responsibility. The high evidentiary threshold for proving genocidal intent further supports the current implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions