Israeli elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, follow the 25th Knesset’s completion of a full term and its July dissolution. Current polling shows neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc nor the main opposition grouping, including parties led by Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett, consistently reaching the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority under proportional representation rules. Recent party list submissions, mergers involving Religious Zionist and other factions, and the entry of new lists such as Ofer Winter’s have kept bloc totals near 52-55 seats in most surveys, leaving Arab parties and smaller lists as potential kingmakers. Trader consensus at 71.5% for one election reflects expectations that post-vote coalition talks will succeed within the standard 28- to 42-day mandate window, while the 26% probability assigned to two elections captures risks of deadlock similar to the 2019-2022 cycle. Upcoming list finalization and any last-minute alliances could shift these assessments before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1 72%
2 26%
3 3.4%
0 <1%
$36,822 Vol.
$36,822 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
0
<1%
1
72%
2
26%
3
3%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
1 72%
2 26%
3 3.4%
0 <1%
$36,822 Vol.
$36,822 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
0
$1,746 Vol.
<1%
1
$14,830 Vol.
72%
2
$13,699 Vol.
26%
3
$3,435 Vol.
3%
4
$2,255 Vol.
<1%
5+
$857 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, follow the 25th Knesset’s completion of a full term and its July dissolution. Current polling shows neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc nor the main opposition grouping, including parties led by Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett, consistently reaching the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority under proportional representation rules. Recent party list submissions, mergers involving Religious Zionist and other factions, and the entry of new lists such as Ofer Winter’s have kept bloc totals near 52-55 seats in most surveys, leaving Arab parties and smaller lists as potential kingmakers. Trader consensus at 71.5% for one election reflects expectations that post-vote coalition talks will succeed within the standard 28- to 42-day mandate window, while the 26% probability assigned to two elections captures risks of deadlock similar to the 2019-2022 cycle. Upcoming list finalization and any last-minute alliances could shift these assessments before election day.
This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volume
$36,822End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, follow the 25th Knesset’s completion of a full term and its July dissolution. Current polling shows neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc nor the main opposition grouping, including parties led by Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett, consistently reaching the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority under proportional representation rules. Recent party list submissions, mergers involving Religious Zionist and other factions, and the entry of new lists such as Ofer Winter’s have kept bloc totals near 52-55 seats in most surveys, leaving Arab parties and smaller lists as potential kingmakers. Trader consensus at 71.5% for one election reflects expectations that post-vote coalition talks will succeed within the standard 28- to 42-day mandate window, while the 26% probability assigned to two elections captures risks of deadlock similar to the 2019-2022 cycle. Upcoming list finalization and any last-minute alliances could shift these assessments before election day.
This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market.
Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count.
A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$36,822End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Israeli elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, follow the 25th Knesset’s completion of a full term and its July dissolution. Current polling shows neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc nor the main opposition grouping, including parties led by Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett, consistently reaching the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority under proportional representation rules. Recent party list submissions, mergers involving Religious Zionist and other factions, and the entry of new lists such as Ofer Winter’s have kept bloc totals near 52-55 seats in most surveys, leaving Arab parties and smaller lists as potential kingmakers. Trader consensus at 71.5% for one election reflects expectations that post-vote coalition talks will succeed within the standard 28- to 42-day mandate window, while the 26% probability assigned to two elections captures risks of deadlock similar to the 2019-2022 cycle. Upcoming list finalization and any last-minute alliances could shift these assessments before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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