Recent polling averages project Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition bloc near 51 seats and the broader opposition near 57–67 seats ahead of the 27 October Knesset vote, leaving both short of the 61-seat majority threshold in most surveys. The 25th Knesset’s completion of a full term—the first since 1988—ended a cycle of repeated snap elections, yet post-vote coalition talks are expected to hinge on whether opposition parties led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s Together can bridge differences over Arab-party inclusion, security policy, and Haredi draft exemptions. Netanyahu’s camp has narrowed the gap in the latest readings through far-right mergers and modest Likud gains, while internal opposition fragmentation and threshold risks for smaller parties continue to complicate any path to 61. Traders therefore assign the “no hung parliament” outcome a 73.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the view that negotiations will ultimately produce a government rather than an immediate return to the polls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated27% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 26, 2026
27% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 26, 2026
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages project Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition bloc near 51 seats and the broader opposition near 57–67 seats ahead of the 27 October Knesset vote, leaving both short of the 61-seat majority threshold in most surveys. The 25th Knesset’s completion of a full term—the first since 1988—ended a cycle of repeated snap elections, yet post-vote coalition talks are expected to hinge on whether opposition parties led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s Together can bridge differences over Arab-party inclusion, security policy, and Haredi draft exemptions. Netanyahu’s camp has narrowed the gap in the latest readings through far-right mergers and modest Likud gains, while internal opposition fragmentation and threshold risks for smaller parties continue to complicate any path to 61. Traders therefore assign the “no hung parliament” outcome a 73.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the view that negotiations will ultimately produce a government rather than an immediate return to the polls.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
Volume
$5,006End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages project Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition bloc near 51 seats and the broader opposition near 57–67 seats ahead of the 27 October Knesset vote, leaving both short of the 61-seat majority threshold in most surveys. The 25th Knesset’s completion of a full term—the first since 1988—ended a cycle of repeated snap elections, yet post-vote coalition talks are expected to hinge on whether opposition parties led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s Together can bridge differences over Arab-party inclusion, security policy, and Haredi draft exemptions. Netanyahu’s camp has narrowed the gap in the latest readings through far-right mergers and modest Likud gains, while internal opposition fragmentation and threshold risks for smaller parties continue to complicate any path to 61. Traders therefore assign the “no hung parliament” outcome a 73.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the view that negotiations will ultimately produce a government rather than an immediate return to the polls.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,006End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages project Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition bloc near 51 seats and the broader opposition near 57–67 seats ahead of the 27 October Knesset vote, leaving both short of the 61-seat majority threshold in most surveys. The 25th Knesset’s completion of a full term—the first since 1988—ended a cycle of repeated snap elections, yet post-vote coalition talks are expected to hinge on whether opposition parties led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Naftali Bennett’s Together can bridge differences over Arab-party inclusion, security policy, and Haredi draft exemptions. Netanyahu’s camp has narrowed the gap in the latest readings through far-right mergers and modest Likud gains, while internal opposition fragmentation and threshold risks for smaller parties continue to complicate any path to 61. Traders therefore assign the “no hung parliament” outcome a 73.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the view that negotiations will ultimately produce a government rather than an immediate return to the polls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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