**Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election show Likud projected at 19–23 seats, well below its 32 seats in the outgoing legislature.** Multiple surveys from outlets including Maariv, Channel 13, Kantar, and others place the party behind challengers such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar (often 22–25 seats) and Naftali Bennett’s Together, with Netanyahu’s broader coalition bloc frequently short of a 61-seat majority. This reflects sustained voter shifts toward centrist and right-wing alternatives amid ongoing security debates, right-wing vote fragmentation from new lists like Amcha Yisrael, and the absence of a decisive polling rebound after Likud primaries. Traders price the high probability of fewer Likud seats on these persistent trends and the scheduled full-term election timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated92% chance
$16,678 Vol.
$16,678 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
92% chance
$16,678 Vol.
$16,678 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election show Likud projected at 19–23 seats, well below its 32 seats in the outgoing legislature.** Multiple surveys from outlets including Maariv, Channel 13, Kantar, and others place the party behind challengers such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar (often 22–25 seats) and Naftali Bennett’s Together, with Netanyahu’s broader coalition bloc frequently short of a 61-seat majority. This reflects sustained voter shifts toward centrist and right-wing alternatives amid ongoing security debates, right-wing vote fragmentation from new lists like Amcha Yisrael, and the absence of a decisive polling rebound after Likud primaries. Traders price the high probability of fewer Likud seats on these persistent trends and the scheduled full-term election timeline.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$16,678End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).**Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election show Likud projected at 19–23 seats, well below its 32 seats in the outgoing legislature.** Multiple surveys from outlets including Maariv, Channel 13, Kantar, and others place the party behind challengers such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar (often 22–25 seats) and Naftali Bennett’s Together, with Netanyahu’s broader coalition bloc frequently short of a 61-seat majority. This reflects sustained voter shifts toward centrist and right-wing alternatives amid ongoing security debates, right-wing vote fragmentation from new lists like Amcha Yisrael, and the absence of a decisive polling rebound after Likud primaries. Traders price the high probability of fewer Likud seats on these persistent trends and the scheduled full-term election timeline.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$16,678End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election show Likud projected at 19–23 seats, well below its 32 seats in the outgoing legislature.** Multiple surveys from outlets including Maariv, Channel 13, Kantar, and others place the party behind challengers such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar (often 22–25 seats) and Naftali Bennett’s Together, with Netanyahu’s broader coalition bloc frequently short of a 61-seat majority. This reflects sustained voter shifts toward centrist and right-wing alternatives amid ongoing security debates, right-wing vote fragmentation from new lists like Amcha Yisrael, and the absence of a decisive polling rebound after Likud primaries. Traders price the high probability of fewer Likud seats on these persistent trends and the scheduled full-term election timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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