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icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Flávio Bolsonaro 91%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 6.8%

Renan Santos 1.6%

Augusto Cury 1.1%

Polymarket

$6,507,228 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 91%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 6.8%

Renan Santos 1.6%

Augusto Cury 1.1%

Polymarket

$6,507,228 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$606,050 Vol.

91%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$471,722 Vol.

7%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$1,242,187 Vol.

2%

icon for Augusto Cury

Augusto Cury

$142,909 Vol.

1%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$380,205 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$810,189 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$173,539 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$143,636 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$274,534 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$218,944 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$205,082 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$452,583 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$228,767 Vol.

<1%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$207,849 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$20,972 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$750,154 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$142,390 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$35,519 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding position in trader assessments for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, PoderData, and others consistently places the Liberal Party senator behind only incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, typically in the low-to-mid 30s while the next-closest contenders trail by double digits. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility has consolidated right-leaning support around his son and the PL ticket, reinforced by the start of free broadcast time and the absence of a stronger alternative from other parties. Lula’s own numbers have edged lower in the latest surveys, but no challenger has yet mounted a sustained surge. A late consolidation behind another right-wing or centrist name, or a significant scandal affecting Flávio’s campaign, could still alter the ordering before ballots are cast.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$6,507,228
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding position in trader assessments for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, PoderData, and others consistently places the Liberal Party senator behind only incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, typically in the low-to-mid 30s while the next-closest contenders trail by double digits. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility has consolidated right-leaning support around his son and the PL ticket, reinforced by the start of free broadcast time and the absence of a stronger alternative from other parties. Lula’s own numbers have edged lower in the latest surveys, but no challenger has yet mounted a sustained surge. A late consolidation behind another right-wing or centrist name, or a significant scandal affecting Flávio’s campaign, could still alter the ordering before ballots are cast.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$6,507,228
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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icon for Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 18 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 91%, followed by "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place" has generated $6.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place," browse the 18 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place" is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.