Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator and current vice president of the Senate, holds a clear lead in trader consensus for first place in Tocantins' October 4, 2026, election for two Senate seats. Recent polls, including those from Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas in August, show him ahead with 26-35% support in stimulated scenarios, ahead of Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and Carlos Gaguim (União). The fragmented field of 13 registered candidates, including lower-polling names like Eli Borges, Vanderlei Luxemburgo, and Paulo Mourão, has concentrated support around Gomes due to his incumbency advantage and name recognition. With voting still weeks away and high undecided rates in some surveys, traders appear to weigh his consistent positioning as the primary driver of implied probabilities for top placement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEduardo Gomes 69%
Alexandre Guimarães 17.5%
Gaguim 13.9%
Paulo Mourão <1%
$26,547 Vol.
$26,547 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Gomes
69%
Alexandre Guimarães
18%
Gaguim
14%
Paulo Mourão
1%
Eli Borges
<1%
Fábio Ribeiro
<1%
Nilton Santos
<1%
Osvany Luz
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
<1%
Ronaldo Dimas
<1%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
<1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
<1%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
<1%
Eduardo Gomes 69%
Alexandre Guimarães 17.5%
Gaguim 13.9%
Paulo Mourão <1%
$26,547 Vol.
$26,547 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Gomes
$15,471 Vol.
69%
Alexandre Guimarães
$2,350 Vol.
18%
Gaguim
$1,403 Vol.
14%
Paulo Mourão
$736 Vol.
1%
Eli Borges
$689 Vol.
<1%
Fábio Ribeiro
$759 Vol.
<1%
Nilton Santos
$798 Vol.
<1%
Osvany Luz
$691 Vol.
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
$759 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Dimas
$776 Vol.
<1%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
$748 Vol.
<1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
$554 Vol.
<1%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
$811 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator and current vice president of the Senate, holds a clear lead in trader consensus for first place in Tocantins' October 4, 2026, election for two Senate seats. Recent polls, including those from Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas in August, show him ahead with 26-35% support in stimulated scenarios, ahead of Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and Carlos Gaguim (União). The fragmented field of 13 registered candidates, including lower-polling names like Eli Borges, Vanderlei Luxemburgo, and Paulo Mourão, has concentrated support around Gomes due to his incumbency advantage and name recognition. With voting still weeks away and high undecided rates in some surveys, traders appear to weigh his consistent positioning as the primary driver of implied probabilities for top placement.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$26,547End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator and current vice president of the Senate, holds a clear lead in trader consensus for first place in Tocantins' October 4, 2026, election for two Senate seats. Recent polls, including those from Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas in August, show him ahead with 26-35% support in stimulated scenarios, ahead of Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and Carlos Gaguim (União). The fragmented field of 13 registered candidates, including lower-polling names like Eli Borges, Vanderlei Luxemburgo, and Paulo Mourão, has concentrated support around Gomes due to his incumbency advantage and name recognition. With voting still weeks away and high undecided rates in some surveys, traders appear to weigh his consistent positioning as the primary driver of implied probabilities for top placement.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$26,547End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator and current vice president of the Senate, holds a clear lead in trader consensus for first place in Tocantins' October 4, 2026, election for two Senate seats. Recent polls, including those from Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas in August, show him ahead with 26-35% support in stimulated scenarios, ahead of Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and Carlos Gaguim (União). The fragmented field of 13 registered candidates, including lower-polling names like Eli Borges, Vanderlei Luxemburgo, and Paulo Mourão, has concentrated support around Gomes due to his incumbency advantage and name recognition. With voting still weeks away and high undecided rates in some surveys, traders appear to weigh his consistent positioning as the primary driver of implied probabilities for top placement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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