Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicanos candidate ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and others show him holding 41-55% support in the first round against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 26-35%, with smaller candidates trailing far behind. His advantage stems from consistent approval ratings near 55-62% for his administration, cross-party endorsements including from the PSD, and the withdrawal of potential rivals such as Kim Kataguiri. Haddad's higher rejection levels and the absence of major recent shifts in voter preferences have kept the race stable. Traders' consensus reflects the narrow window for late developments like turnout swings or unforeseen events to alter the outcome before voting concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTarcísio de Freitas 97.8%
Fernando Haddad 1.4%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$303,919 Vol.
$303,919 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
98%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 97.8%
Fernando Haddad 1.4%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$303,919 Vol.
$303,919 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$143,967 Vol.
98%
Fernando Haddad
$48,954 Vol.
1%
Erika Hilton
$23,068 Vol.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$77,262 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicanos candidate ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and others show him holding 41-55% support in the first round against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 26-35%, with smaller candidates trailing far behind. His advantage stems from consistent approval ratings near 55-62% for his administration, cross-party endorsements including from the PSD, and the withdrawal of potential rivals such as Kim Kataguiri. Haddad's higher rejection levels and the absence of major recent shifts in voter preferences have kept the race stable. Traders' consensus reflects the narrow window for late developments like turnout swings or unforeseen events to alter the outcome before voting concludes.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$303,919End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicanos candidate ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and others show him holding 41-55% support in the first round against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 26-35%, with smaller candidates trailing far behind. His advantage stems from consistent approval ratings near 55-62% for his administration, cross-party endorsements including from the PSD, and the withdrawal of potential rivals such as Kim Kataguiri. Haddad's higher rejection levels and the absence of major recent shifts in voter preferences have kept the race stable. Traders' consensus reflects the narrow window for late developments like turnout swings or unforeseen events to alter the outcome before voting concludes.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$303,919End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicanos candidate ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and others show him holding 41-55% support in the first round against Fernando Haddad of the PT at 26-35%, with smaller candidates trailing far behind. His advantage stems from consistent approval ratings near 55-62% for his administration, cross-party endorsements including from the PSD, and the withdrawal of potential rivals such as Kim Kataguiri. Haddad's higher rejection levels and the absence of major recent shifts in voter preferences have kept the race stable. Traders' consensus reflects the narrow window for late developments like turnout swings or unforeseen events to alter the outcome before voting concludes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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