Sergio Moro (PL) holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial race, reflected in his 82.5% market price, due to consistent polling advantages of 15–30 points over rivals in first-round scenarios from institutes including Paraná Pesquisas, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data through early September. His profile as a sitting senator, former federal judge, and justice minister provides broad name recognition and support across center-right voters. Term limits bar incumbent Ratinho Junior (PSD) from running, leaving Sandro Alex (PSD) as the continuity candidate with a large coalition but trailing in voter intention at 15–26%. Requião Filho (PDT) competes for second place amid fragmented opposition. The first round on October 4 and potential runoff on October 25 remain the key resolution triggers, with late shifts possible from undecided voters still near 15–20% in recent surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedParaná Governor Election Winner
Paraná Governor Election Winner
Sergio Moro 83%
Sandro Alex 18%
Requião Filho <1%
Alexandre Curi <1%
$108,941 Vol.
$108,941 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Moro
83%
Sandro Alex
18%
Requião Filho
<1%
Alexandre Curi
<1%
Enio Verri
<1%
Luiz França
<1%
Rafael Greca
<1%
Guto Silva
<1%
Beto Richa
<1%
Sergio Moro 83%
Sandro Alex 18%
Requião Filho <1%
Alexandre Curi <1%
$108,941 Vol.
$108,941 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Moro
$71,243 Vol.
83%
Sandro Alex
$6,503 Vol.
18%
Requião Filho
$11,633 Vol.
<1%
Alexandre Curi
$4,246 Vol.
<1%
Enio Verri
$3,396 Vol.
<1%
Luiz França
$2,900 Vol.
<1%
Rafael Greca
$3,373 Vol.
<1%
Guto Silva
$3,022 Vol.
<1%
Beto Richa
$2,625 Vol.
<1%
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro (PL) holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial race, reflected in his 82.5% market price, due to consistent polling advantages of 15–30 points over rivals in first-round scenarios from institutes including Paraná Pesquisas, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data through early September. His profile as a sitting senator, former federal judge, and justice minister provides broad name recognition and support across center-right voters. Term limits bar incumbent Ratinho Junior (PSD) from running, leaving Sandro Alex (PSD) as the continuity candidate with a large coalition but trailing in voter intention at 15–26%. Requião Filho (PDT) competes for second place amid fragmented opposition. The first round on October 4 and potential runoff on October 25 remain the key resolution triggers, with late shifts possible from undecided voters still near 15–20% in recent surveys.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Volume
$108,941End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro (PL) holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial race, reflected in his 82.5% market price, due to consistent polling advantages of 15–30 points over rivals in first-round scenarios from institutes including Paraná Pesquisas, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data through early September. His profile as a sitting senator, former federal judge, and justice minister provides broad name recognition and support across center-right voters. Term limits bar incumbent Ratinho Junior (PSD) from running, leaving Sandro Alex (PSD) as the continuity candidate with a large coalition but trailing in voter intention at 15–26%. Requião Filho (PDT) competes for second place amid fragmented opposition. The first round on October 4 and potential runoff on October 25 remain the key resolution triggers, with late shifts possible from undecided voters still near 15–20% in recent surveys.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$108,941End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Sergio Moro (PL) holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Paraná gubernatorial race, reflected in his 82.5% market price, due to consistent polling advantages of 15–30 points over rivals in first-round scenarios from institutes including Paraná Pesquisas, Quaest, and Real Time Big Data through early September. His profile as a sitting senator, former federal judge, and justice minister provides broad name recognition and support across center-right voters. Term limits bar incumbent Ratinho Junior (PSD) from running, leaving Sandro Alex (PSD) as the continuity candidate with a large coalition but trailing in voter intention at 15–26%. Requião Filho (PDT) competes for second place amid fragmented opposition. The first round on October 4 and potential runoff on October 25 remain the key resolution triggers, with late shifts possible from undecided voters still near 15–20% in recent surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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