Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after João Azevêdo’s resignation to pursue a Senate seat, leads the 2026 Paraíba gubernatorial race with strong trader consensus at 85.5%. Recent AtlasIntel polling from late August to early September shows him at 42.4% in the first round, ahead of Efraim Filho (PL) at 30.9% and Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 19.8%, with other registered candidates below 1%. His position stems from incumbency advantages, a broad coalition including PP, União Brasil, PDT, and allied parties, family political ties, and campaign focus on health infrastructure and continuity of prior state projects ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Lower probabilities for challengers reflect their more limited polling support and coalition positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLucas Ribeiro 83%
Cícero Lucena 7%
Efraim Filho 6%
Nilvan Ferreira <1%
$60,660 Vol.
$60,660 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lucas Ribeiro
83%
Cícero Lucena
7%
Efraim Filho
6%
Nilvan Ferreira
1%
Flávio Lúcio
1%
Veneziano Vital do Rêgo
1%
Romero Rodrigues
<1%
Marcelo Queiroga
<1%
Lucas Ribeiro 83%
Cícero Lucena 7%
Efraim Filho 6%
Nilvan Ferreira <1%
$60,660 Vol.
$60,660 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lucas Ribeiro
$18,040 Vol.
83%
Cícero Lucena
$20,348 Vol.
7%
Efraim Filho
$13,360 Vol.
6%
Nilvan Ferreira
$861 Vol.
1%
Flávio Lúcio
$843 Vol.
1%
Veneziano Vital do Rêgo
$2,398 Vol.
1%
Romero Rodrigues
$1,471 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Queiroga
$3,341 Vol.
<1%
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after João Azevêdo’s resignation to pursue a Senate seat, leads the 2026 Paraíba gubernatorial race with strong trader consensus at 85.5%. Recent AtlasIntel polling from late August to early September shows him at 42.4% in the first round, ahead of Efraim Filho (PL) at 30.9% and Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 19.8%, with other registered candidates below 1%. His position stems from incumbency advantages, a broad coalition including PP, União Brasil, PDT, and allied parties, family political ties, and campaign focus on health infrastructure and continuity of prior state projects ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Lower probabilities for challengers reflect their more limited polling support and coalition positioning.
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$60,660End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after João Azevêdo’s resignation to pursue a Senate seat, leads the 2026 Paraíba gubernatorial race with strong trader consensus at 85.5%. Recent AtlasIntel polling from late August to early September shows him at 42.4% in the first round, ahead of Efraim Filho (PL) at 30.9% and Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 19.8%, with other registered candidates below 1%. His position stems from incumbency advantages, a broad coalition including PP, União Brasil, PDT, and allied parties, family political ties, and campaign focus on health infrastructure and continuity of prior state projects ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Lower probabilities for challengers reflect their more limited polling support and coalition positioning.
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$60,660End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after João Azevêdo’s resignation to pursue a Senate seat, leads the 2026 Paraíba gubernatorial race with strong trader consensus at 85.5%. Recent AtlasIntel polling from late August to early September shows him at 42.4% in the first round, ahead of Efraim Filho (PL) at 30.9% and Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 19.8%, with other registered candidates below 1%. His position stems from incumbency advantages, a broad coalition including PP, União Brasil, PDT, and allied parties, family political ties, and campaign focus on health infrastructure and continuity of prior state projects ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Lower probabilities for challengers reflect their more limited polling support and coalition positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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