Lula maintains a commanding position in Piauí first-round voting intentions according to recent state-level polling, with support levels of 60-66% compared to under 20% for the nearest competitors such as Flávio Bolsonaro. This reflects Piauí's status as a Northeast stronghold for the PT, where the president achieved 74% of valid votes in the 2022 first round, combined with strong local approval of his administration and alignment with the state's PT governor Rafael Fonteles, who leads his own re-election race. Trader consensus at 98% probability incorporates these sustained margins and the absence of major disruptive events in recent months. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments, turnout variations among key demographics, or unforeseen national events, though current data show limited signs of such volatility before the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 98.0%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$12,253 Vol.
$12,253 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
98%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Zema
<1%
Samara
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Lula 98.0%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$12,253 Vol.
$12,253 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$7,298 Vol.
98%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$383 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$449 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$475 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$387 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$397 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$490 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$301 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$371 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$465 Vol.
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$397 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$381 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$461 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Piauí first-round voting intentions according to recent state-level polling, with support levels of 60-66% compared to under 20% for the nearest competitors such as Flávio Bolsonaro. This reflects Piauí's status as a Northeast stronghold for the PT, where the president achieved 74% of valid votes in the 2022 first round, combined with strong local approval of his administration and alignment with the state's PT governor Rafael Fonteles, who leads his own re-election race. Trader consensus at 98% probability incorporates these sustained margins and the absence of major disruptive events in recent months. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments, turnout variations among key demographics, or unforeseen national events, though current data show limited signs of such volatility before the October vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ET
Volume
$12,253End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Piauí first-round voting intentions according to recent state-level polling, with support levels of 60-66% compared to under 20% for the nearest competitors such as Flávio Bolsonaro. This reflects Piauí's status as a Northeast stronghold for the PT, where the president achieved 74% of valid votes in the 2022 first round, combined with strong local approval of his administration and alignment with the state's PT governor Rafael Fonteles, who leads his own re-election race. Trader consensus at 98% probability incorporates these sustained margins and the absence of major disruptive events in recent months. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments, turnout variations among key demographics, or unforeseen national events, though current data show limited signs of such volatility before the October vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$12,253End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding position in Piauí first-round voting intentions according to recent state-level polling, with support levels of 60-66% compared to under 20% for the nearest competitors such as Flávio Bolsonaro. This reflects Piauí's status as a Northeast stronghold for the PT, where the president achieved 74% of valid votes in the 2022 first round, combined with strong local approval of his administration and alignment with the state's PT governor Rafael Fonteles, who leads his own re-election race. Trader consensus at 98% probability incorporates these sustained margins and the absence of major disruptive events in recent months. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments, turnout variations among key demographics, or unforeseen national events, though current data show limited signs of such volatility before the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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