Lula maintains a commanding lead in Sergipe first-round voting intentions, with recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys showing 53-58% support against Flávio Bolsonaro at 19-23% and single digits or less for names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos. This positioning stems from the northeastern state's longstanding PT alignment, combined with 50-64% approval ratings for Lula's federal administration and announced investments in local infrastructure and industry. The October 4 first-round date leaves limited time for shifts, though late campaign developments, turnout variations among key voting blocs, or changes in national economic conditions could still narrow the margin before ballots close. Trader pricing aligns with these consistent regional polling trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 95.6%
Flavio Bolsonaro 2.6%
Clariana Barao 1.3%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
$16,034 Vol.
$16,034 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
3%
Clariana Barao
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Lula 95.6%
Flavio Bolsonaro 2.6%
Clariana Barao 1.3%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
$16,034 Vol.
$16,034 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$8,606 Vol.
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$831 Vol.
3%
Clariana Barao
$1,169 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$556 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$578 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$556 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$578 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$584 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$564 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$497 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$522 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$522 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$469 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Sergipe first-round voting intentions, with recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys showing 53-58% support against Flávio Bolsonaro at 19-23% and single digits or less for names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos. This positioning stems from the northeastern state's longstanding PT alignment, combined with 50-64% approval ratings for Lula's federal administration and announced investments in local infrastructure and industry. The October 4 first-round date leaves limited time for shifts, though late campaign developments, turnout variations among key voting blocs, or changes in national economic conditions could still narrow the margin before ballots close. Trader pricing aligns with these consistent regional polling trends.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$16,034End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Sergipe first-round voting intentions, with recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys showing 53-58% support against Flávio Bolsonaro at 19-23% and single digits or less for names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos. This positioning stems from the northeastern state's longstanding PT alignment, combined with 50-64% approval ratings for Lula's federal administration and announced investments in local infrastructure and industry. The October 4 first-round date leaves limited time for shifts, though late campaign developments, turnout variations among key voting blocs, or changes in national economic conditions could still narrow the margin before ballots close. Trader pricing aligns with these consistent regional polling trends.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$16,034End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Sergipe first-round voting intentions, with recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys showing 53-58% support against Flávio Bolsonaro at 19-23% and single digits or less for names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos. This positioning stems from the northeastern state's longstanding PT alignment, combined with 50-64% approval ratings for Lula's federal administration and announced investments in local infrastructure and industry. The October 4 first-round date leaves limited time for shifts, though late campaign developments, turnout variations among key voting blocs, or changes in national economic conditions could still narrow the margin before ballots close. Trader pricing aligns with these consistent regional polling trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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