Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Mato Grosso polling for the October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state’s conservative agricultural electorate and consistent double-digit margins over Lula in recent surveys from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and Quaest. As the Liberal Party nominee and standard-bearer for Bolsonarism following his father’s ineligibility, Bolsonaro benefits from regional alignment on issues like agribusiness policy and public security. Trader consensus at 94.5% incorporates these localized patterns, while low probabilities for Lula and minor candidates mirror their single-digit or sub-5% shares in state samples. Shifts could occur if late-campaign developments alter turnout among undecided voters or if national momentum for other contenders spills into Mato Grosso before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 95%
Lula 2.8%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
95%
Lula
3%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Zema
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 95%
Lula 2.8%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$3,323 Vol.
95%
Lula
$1,348 Vol.
3%
Edmilson Costa
$358 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$373 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$332 Vol.
1%
Zema
$496 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$274 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$248 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$327 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$278 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$291 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$365 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$284 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Mato Grosso polling for the October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state’s conservative agricultural electorate and consistent double-digit margins over Lula in recent surveys from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and Quaest. As the Liberal Party nominee and standard-bearer for Bolsonarism following his father’s ineligibility, Bolsonaro benefits from regional alignment on issues like agribusiness policy and public security. Trader consensus at 94.5% incorporates these localized patterns, while low probabilities for Lula and minor candidates mirror their single-digit or sub-5% shares in state samples. Shifts could occur if late-campaign developments alter turnout among undecided voters or if national momentum for other contenders spills into Mato Grosso before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$8,297End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Mato Grosso polling for the October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state’s conservative agricultural electorate and consistent double-digit margins over Lula in recent surveys from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and Quaest. As the Liberal Party nominee and standard-bearer for Bolsonarism following his father’s ineligibility, Bolsonaro benefits from regional alignment on issues like agribusiness policy and public security. Trader consensus at 94.5% incorporates these localized patterns, while low probabilities for Lula and minor candidates mirror their single-digit or sub-5% shares in state samples. Shifts could occur if late-campaign developments alter turnout among undecided voters or if national momentum for other contenders spills into Mato Grosso before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,297End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Mato Grosso polling for the October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state’s conservative agricultural electorate and consistent double-digit margins over Lula in recent surveys from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and Quaest. As the Liberal Party nominee and standard-bearer for Bolsonarism following his father’s ineligibility, Bolsonaro benefits from regional alignment on issues like agribusiness policy and public security. Trader consensus at 94.5% incorporates these localized patterns, while low probabilities for Lula and minor candidates mirror their single-digit or sub-5% shares in state samples. Shifts could occur if late-campaign developments alter turnout among undecided voters or if national momentum for other contenders spills into Mato Grosso before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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