Reinaldo Azambuja (PL), the former Mato Grosso do Sul governor, holds an 83.5% implied probability for first place in the October 4, 2026, Senate election according to trader consensus. Recent polling from late August consistently shows him leading with 22–30% combined vote intention, ahead of running mate Capitão Contar (PL) at 15–19%. Key drivers include Azambuja’s established statewide profile, unification of the center-right bloc after Nelsinho Trad withdrew his reelection bid to serve as Azambuja’s alternate, and alignment with Governor Eduardo Riedel’s group. Contar trails at 13.5% amid the same PL ticket. Other registered candidates, including Soraya Thronicke (PSB), Vander Loubet (PT), and minor-party contenders, register well below 10% in surveys and carry correspondingly low market odds. The two-seat contest uses a single-round, top-two format, with no major late developments reported since candidacies were formalized in August.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedReinaldo Azambuja 84%
Capitão Contar 14%
Luiz Lemes 1.1%
Daniel Junior <1%
$17,290 Vol.
$17,290 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Reinaldo Azambuja
84%
Capitão Contar
14%
Luiz Lemes
1%
Daniel Junior
1%
Valter da Comagran
1%
Valderi Garcia
1%
Roberto Oshiro
<1%
Beto do Movimento
<1%
Soraya
<1%
Vander Loubet
<1%
Reinaldo Azambuja 84%
Capitão Contar 14%
Luiz Lemes 1.1%
Daniel Junior <1%
$17,290 Vol.
$17,290 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Reinaldo Azambuja
$10,211 Vol.
84%
Capitão Contar
$2,487 Vol.
14%
Luiz Lemes
$591 Vol.
1%
Daniel Junior
$463 Vol.
1%
Valter da Comagran
$638 Vol.
1%
Valderi Garcia
$570 Vol.
1%
Roberto Oshiro
$634 Vol.
<1%
Beto do Movimento
$576 Vol.
<1%
Soraya
$571 Vol.
<1%
Vander Loubet
$550 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja (PL), the former Mato Grosso do Sul governor, holds an 83.5% implied probability for first place in the October 4, 2026, Senate election according to trader consensus. Recent polling from late August consistently shows him leading with 22–30% combined vote intention, ahead of running mate Capitão Contar (PL) at 15–19%. Key drivers include Azambuja’s established statewide profile, unification of the center-right bloc after Nelsinho Trad withdrew his reelection bid to serve as Azambuja’s alternate, and alignment with Governor Eduardo Riedel’s group. Contar trails at 13.5% amid the same PL ticket. Other registered candidates, including Soraya Thronicke (PSB), Vander Loubet (PT), and minor-party contenders, register well below 10% in surveys and carry correspondingly low market odds. The two-seat contest uses a single-round, top-two format, with no major late developments reported since candidacies were formalized in August.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$17,290End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja (PL), the former Mato Grosso do Sul governor, holds an 83.5% implied probability for first place in the October 4, 2026, Senate election according to trader consensus. Recent polling from late August consistently shows him leading with 22–30% combined vote intention, ahead of running mate Capitão Contar (PL) at 15–19%. Key drivers include Azambuja’s established statewide profile, unification of the center-right bloc after Nelsinho Trad withdrew his reelection bid to serve as Azambuja’s alternate, and alignment with Governor Eduardo Riedel’s group. Contar trails at 13.5% amid the same PL ticket. Other registered candidates, including Soraya Thronicke (PSB), Vander Loubet (PT), and minor-party contenders, register well below 10% in surveys and carry correspondingly low market odds. The two-seat contest uses a single-round, top-two format, with no major late developments reported since candidacies were formalized in August.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$17,290End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Reinaldo Azambuja (PL), the former Mato Grosso do Sul governor, holds an 83.5% implied probability for first place in the October 4, 2026, Senate election according to trader consensus. Recent polling from late August consistently shows him leading with 22–30% combined vote intention, ahead of running mate Capitão Contar (PL) at 15–19%. Key drivers include Azambuja’s established statewide profile, unification of the center-right bloc after Nelsinho Trad withdrew his reelection bid to serve as Azambuja’s alternate, and alignment with Governor Eduardo Riedel’s group. Contar trails at 13.5% amid the same PL ticket. Other registered candidates, including Soraya Thronicke (PSB), Vander Loubet (PT), and minor-party contenders, register well below 10% in surveys and carry correspondingly low market odds. The two-seat contest uses a single-round, top-two format, with no major late developments reported since candidacies were formalized in August.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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