**Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign has conditioned his participation in first-round presidential debates on the confirmed presence of frontrunner Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).** This strategy, articulated in July and reaffirmed ahead of the August 23 Band debate, aims to avoid attacks from lower-polling right-wing rivals (such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos) while focusing exchanges on the main opponent. Both leading candidates skipped the initial televised event, which featured only three minor candidates and drew widespread criticism for its emptiness. Upcoming debates include a September 14 consórcio pool (CNN/SBT/Veja and others), a September 27 Record event, and an October 1 Globo debate. Lula has signaled limited engagement, potentially restricting himself to the final pre-first-round slot on October 1, while Flávio’s team has stated it will evaluate each case individually but has shown no recent shift from the conditional approach. With the first round set for October 4 and polling placing the two leaders well ahead of the field, traders appear to view the conditional stance as reducing the likelihood of Flávio appearing in any pre-election debate, producing the current 63.5% implied probability on “No.”