The São Paulo Senate race for the two seats up in October features a fragmented field of more than two dozen contenders, with recent Datafolha and Genial/Quaest surveys showing Marina Silva and Simone Tebet holding narrow leads overall while Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles remain within the margin of error for the remaining spots. High undecided and blank/null shares, combined with voters selecting two names and overlapping alliances tied to the gubernatorial contest between Fernando Haddad and Tarcísio de Freitas, sustain the tight positioning reflected in current trader consensus. Late-campaign shifts in turnout among key blocs, candidate withdrawals, or stronger coattail effects from the top of the ticket could widen gaps before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSimone Tebet 35%
Marina Silva 31%
André do Prado 18.3%
Guilherme Derrite 18%
$42,082 Vol.
$42,082 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Simone Tebet
35%
Marina Silva
31%
André do Prado
18%
Guilherme Derrite
18%
Salles
4%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Marcio Alves
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
William Teixeira
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
<1%
Maíra de Souza
<1%
Soninha Francine
<1%
Simone Tebet 35%
Marina Silva 31%
André do Prado 18.3%
Guilherme Derrite 18%
$42,082 Vol.
$42,082 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Simone Tebet
$9,499 Vol.
35%
Marina Silva
$10,441 Vol.
31%
André do Prado
$5,227 Vol.
18%
Guilherme Derrite
$6,814 Vol.
18%
Salles
$4,858 Vol.
4%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$580 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
$528 Vol.
<1%
Marcio Alves
$408 Vol.
<1%
Petter Maahs
$757 Vol.
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
$813 Vol.
<1%
William Teixeira
$686 Vol.
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$457 Vol.
<1%
Maíra de Souza
$406 Vol.
<1%
Soninha Francine
$608 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The São Paulo Senate race for the two seats up in October features a fragmented field of more than two dozen contenders, with recent Datafolha and Genial/Quaest surveys showing Marina Silva and Simone Tebet holding narrow leads overall while Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles remain within the margin of error for the remaining spots. High undecided and blank/null shares, combined with voters selecting two names and overlapping alliances tied to the gubernatorial contest between Fernando Haddad and Tarcísio de Freitas, sustain the tight positioning reflected in current trader consensus. Late-campaign shifts in turnout among key blocs, candidate withdrawals, or stronger coattail effects from the top of the ticket could widen gaps before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$42,082End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The São Paulo Senate race for the two seats up in October features a fragmented field of more than two dozen contenders, with recent Datafolha and Genial/Quaest surveys showing Marina Silva and Simone Tebet holding narrow leads overall while Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles remain within the margin of error for the remaining spots. High undecided and blank/null shares, combined with voters selecting two names and overlapping alliances tied to the gubernatorial contest between Fernando Haddad and Tarcísio de Freitas, sustain the tight positioning reflected in current trader consensus. Late-campaign shifts in turnout among key blocs, candidate withdrawals, or stronger coattail effects from the top of the ticket could widen gaps before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$42,082End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo Senate race for the two seats up in October features a fragmented field of more than two dozen contenders, with recent Datafolha and Genial/Quaest surveys showing Marina Silva and Simone Tebet holding narrow leads overall while Guilherme Derrite, André do Prado, and Ricardo Salles remain within the margin of error for the remaining spots. High undecided and blank/null shares, combined with voters selecting two names and overlapping alliances tied to the gubernatorial contest between Fernando Haddad and Tarcísio de Freitas, sustain the tight positioning reflected in current trader consensus. Late-campaign shifts in turnout among key blocs, candidate withdrawals, or stronger coattail effects from the top of the ticket could widen gaps before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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