Recent polling from late August shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading intentions for the Federal District’s two Senate seats, with Leila do Vôlei (PDT) consistently placing second or tied within margins of error across Quaest, Igape, Datafolha, and Correio/Opinião surveys. This positioning underpins trader consensus on Leila for second place, reflecting her incumbency, name recognition from prior service and volleyball career, and PDT resources. Erika Kokay (PT) and Bia Kicis (PL) trail in most estimates but remain competitive for the second spot depending on turnout and alliances, with Kokay benefiting from left-leaning support and Kicis from PL alignment. Campaigns opened in mid-August with limited subsequent shifts, leaving late-September dynamics and undecided voters as key variables ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLeila do Vôlei 63%
Bia Kicis 16.4%
Erika Kokay 12%
Michelle Bolsonaro 10.0%
$36,663 Vol.
$36,663 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Leila do Vôlei
63%
Bia Kicis
16%
Erika Kokay
17%
Michelle Bolsonaro
10%
David Horn
<1%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Marley
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Leila do Vôlei 63%
Bia Kicis 16.4%
Erika Kokay 12%
Michelle Bolsonaro 10.0%
$36,663 Vol.
$36,663 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Leila do Vôlei
$12,938 Vol.
63%
Bia Kicis
$7,650 Vol.
16%
Erika Kokay
$6,055 Vol.
17%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$4,213 Vol.
10%
David Horn
$1,967 Vol.
<1%
Avenir Rosa
$437 Vol.
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$381 Vol.
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$878 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$546 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$392 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$407 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$381 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$417 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading intentions for the Federal District’s two Senate seats, with Leila do Vôlei (PDT) consistently placing second or tied within margins of error across Quaest, Igape, Datafolha, and Correio/Opinião surveys. This positioning underpins trader consensus on Leila for second place, reflecting her incumbency, name recognition from prior service and volleyball career, and PDT resources. Erika Kokay (PT) and Bia Kicis (PL) trail in most estimates but remain competitive for the second spot depending on turnout and alliances, with Kokay benefiting from left-leaning support and Kicis from PL alignment. Campaigns opened in mid-August with limited subsequent shifts, leaving late-September dynamics and undecided voters as key variables ahead of the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$36,663End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading intentions for the Federal District’s two Senate seats, with Leila do Vôlei (PDT) consistently placing second or tied within margins of error across Quaest, Igape, Datafolha, and Correio/Opinião surveys. This positioning underpins trader consensus on Leila for second place, reflecting her incumbency, name recognition from prior service and volleyball career, and PDT resources. Erika Kokay (PT) and Bia Kicis (PL) trail in most estimates but remain competitive for the second spot depending on turnout and alliances, with Kokay benefiting from left-leaning support and Kicis from PL alignment. Campaigns opened in mid-August with limited subsequent shifts, leaving late-September dynamics and undecided voters as key variables ahead of the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$36,663End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from late August shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading intentions for the Federal District’s two Senate seats, with Leila do Vôlei (PDT) consistently placing second or tied within margins of error across Quaest, Igape, Datafolha, and Correio/Opinião surveys. This positioning underpins trader consensus on Leila for second place, reflecting her incumbency, name recognition from prior service and volleyball career, and PDT resources. Erika Kokay (PT) and Bia Kicis (PL) trail in most estimates but remain competitive for the second spot depending on turnout and alliances, with Kokay benefiting from left-leaning support and Kicis from PL alignment. Campaigns opened in mid-August with limited subsequent shifts, leaving late-September dynamics and undecided voters as key variables ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions