Flávio Bolsonaro maintains overwhelming trader consensus for first place in Roraima's presidential first round due to the state's consistent conservative leanings and strong alignment with the Liberal Party platform. Recent Quaest polling from late August shows him at 52% against Lula's 17%, consistent with Jair Bolsonaro's 76% margin there in 2022. Local PL successes, including the leading but unresolved gubernatorial vote for Arthur Henrique in June, reinforce party infrastructure and voter familiarity. Roraima's agricultural and evangelical demographics favor continuity with Bolsonarista priorities on land policy and security. A late scandal, health development, or sharp national shift favoring Lula could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to sustained dominance through October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 97.3%
Lula 2.2%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
97%
Lula
2%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.3%
Lula 2.2%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$3,571 Vol.
97%
Lula
$657 Vol.
2%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$424 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$560 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$417 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$498 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$528 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$492 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$448 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$448 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$448 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$416 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$418 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Roraima, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains overwhelming trader consensus for first place in Roraima's presidential first round due to the state's consistent conservative leanings and strong alignment with the Liberal Party platform. Recent Quaest polling from late August shows him at 52% against Lula's 17%, consistent with Jair Bolsonaro's 76% margin there in 2022. Local PL successes, including the leading but unresolved gubernatorial vote for Arthur Henrique in June, reinforce party infrastructure and voter familiarity. Roraima's agricultural and evangelical demographics favor continuity with Bolsonarista priorities on land policy and security. A late scandal, health development, or sharp national shift favoring Lula could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to sustained dominance through October.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Roraima, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$9,323End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Roraima, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains overwhelming trader consensus for first place in Roraima's presidential first round due to the state's consistent conservative leanings and strong alignment with the Liberal Party platform. Recent Quaest polling from late August shows him at 52% against Lula's 17%, consistent with Jair Bolsonaro's 76% margin there in 2022. Local PL successes, including the leading but unresolved gubernatorial vote for Arthur Henrique in June, reinforce party infrastructure and voter familiarity. Roraima's agricultural and evangelical demographics favor continuity with Bolsonarista priorities on land policy and security. A late scandal, health development, or sharp national shift favoring Lula could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to sustained dominance through October.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Roraima, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Roraima.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,323End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro maintains overwhelming trader consensus for first place in Roraima's presidential first round due to the state's consistent conservative leanings and strong alignment with the Liberal Party platform. Recent Quaest polling from late August shows him at 52% against Lula's 17%, consistent with Jair Bolsonaro's 76% margin there in 2022. Local PL successes, including the leading but unresolved gubernatorial vote for Arthur Henrique in June, reinforce party infrastructure and voter familiarity. Roraima's agricultural and evangelical demographics favor continuity with Bolsonarista priorities on land policy and security. A late scandal, health development, or sharp national shift favoring Lula could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to sustained dominance through October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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