Recent Quaest and Real Time polls in Amapá show Lula (PT) holding a narrow lead at 36% in first-round voting intentions, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 31-33%, with the remainder scattered among Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury, and lower-polling names. This state-level margin aligns with the market's 66% implied probability for Lula finishing first locally versus 33% for Bolsonaro. Voter assessments remain fluid, with roughly one-quarter of respondents open to shifting preferences before the October 4 first round. Ongoing campaign events, including local walks and media time, continue without major late developments that would materially alter the narrow contest reflected in trader pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 66%
Flavio Bolsonaro 34%
Hertz Dias 1.7%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$15,280 Vol.
$15,280 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
66%
Flavio Bolsonaro
34%
Hertz Dias
2%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Lula 66%
Flavio Bolsonaro 34%
Hertz Dias 1.7%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$15,280 Vol.
$15,280 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$3,827 Vol.
66%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$2,942 Vol.
34%
Hertz Dias
$1,079 Vol.
2%
Pablo Marçal
$1,226 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$792 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$753 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$737 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$662 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$743 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$484 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$470 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$798 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$767 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Quaest and Real Time polls in Amapá show Lula (PT) holding a narrow lead at 36% in first-round voting intentions, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 31-33%, with the remainder scattered among Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury, and lower-polling names. This state-level margin aligns with the market's 66% implied probability for Lula finishing first locally versus 33% for Bolsonaro. Voter assessments remain fluid, with roughly one-quarter of respondents open to shifting preferences before the October 4 first round. Ongoing campaign events, including local walks and media time, continue without major late developments that would materially alter the narrow contest reflected in trader pricing.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$15,280End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Quaest and Real Time polls in Amapá show Lula (PT) holding a narrow lead at 36% in first-round voting intentions, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 31-33%, with the remainder scattered among Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury, and lower-polling names. This state-level margin aligns with the market's 66% implied probability for Lula finishing first locally versus 33% for Bolsonaro. Voter assessments remain fluid, with roughly one-quarter of respondents open to shifting preferences before the October 4 first round. Ongoing campaign events, including local walks and media time, continue without major late developments that would materially alter the narrow contest reflected in trader pricing.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$15,280End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Quaest and Real Time polls in Amapá show Lula (PT) holding a narrow lead at 36% in first-round voting intentions, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 31-33%, with the remainder scattered among Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury, and lower-polling names. This state-level margin aligns with the market's 66% implied probability for Lula finishing first locally versus 33% for Bolsonaro. Voter assessments remain fluid, with roughly one-quarter of respondents open to shifting preferences before the October 4 first round. Ongoing campaign events, including local walks and media time, continue without major late developments that would materially alter the narrow contest reflected in trader pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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