Lula maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Pará's first-round presidential vote, reflecting consistent polling advantages of seven to ten points over Flávio Bolsonaro in recent state surveys from Indexa, Quaest, and AtlasIntel. As incumbent, Lula benefits from established voter bases in northern states and positive regional signals such as the recent offshore oil discovery that bolsters pro-development messaging. Fragmented opposition support among lower-polling names including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and others further reinforces the frontrunner position. Late shifts could still occur through scandals, changes in turnout among undecided voters, or stronger campaign momentum by challengers in the final weeks before the October election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 95%
Flavio Bolsonaro 4.2%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
$17,063 Vol.
$17,063 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
95%
Flavio Bolsonaro
4%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 95%
Flavio Bolsonaro 4.2%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
$17,063 Vol.
$17,063 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$8,102 Vol.
95%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,205 Vol.
4%
Ronaldo Caiado
$574 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$546 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$762 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$1,280 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$574 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$649 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$596 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$689 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$490 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$608 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$989 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Pará's first-round presidential vote, reflecting consistent polling advantages of seven to ten points over Flávio Bolsonaro in recent state surveys from Indexa, Quaest, and AtlasIntel. As incumbent, Lula benefits from established voter bases in northern states and positive regional signals such as the recent offshore oil discovery that bolsters pro-development messaging. Fragmented opposition support among lower-polling names including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and others further reinforces the frontrunner position. Late shifts could still occur through scandals, changes in turnout among undecided voters, or stronger campaign momentum by challengers in the final weeks before the October election.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$17,063End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Pará's first-round presidential vote, reflecting consistent polling advantages of seven to ten points over Flávio Bolsonaro in recent state surveys from Indexa, Quaest, and AtlasIntel. As incumbent, Lula benefits from established voter bases in northern states and positive regional signals such as the recent offshore oil discovery that bolsters pro-development messaging. Fragmented opposition support among lower-polling names including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and others further reinforces the frontrunner position. Late shifts could still occur through scandals, changes in turnout among undecided voters, or stronger campaign momentum by challengers in the final weeks before the October election.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$17,063End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Pará's first-round presidential vote, reflecting consistent polling advantages of seven to ten points over Flávio Bolsonaro in recent state surveys from Indexa, Quaest, and AtlasIntel. As incumbent, Lula benefits from established voter bases in northern states and positive regional signals such as the recent offshore oil discovery that bolsters pro-development messaging. Fragmented opposition support among lower-polling names including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and others further reinforces the frontrunner position. Late shifts could still occur through scandals, changes in turnout among undecided voters, or stronger campaign momentum by challengers in the final weeks before the October election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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