Eduardo Riedel’s commanding lead in the Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial race stems from his status as the incumbent PP governor seeking reelection, backed by a broad coalition that includes PL, MDB, Republicanos, and others. Recent AtlasIntel polling from late August to early September shows him at 49% in the first-round scenario—enough for an outright win on October 4—with Fábio Trad (PT) at 26% and João Henrique Catan (Novo) at 12%, while smaller candidates remain marginal. His 51% approval rating and consistent double-digit margins in multiple surveys reinforce trader consensus on a likely first-round victory. A major scandal, sharp economic reversal, or unexpected opposition consolidation could still alter dynamics before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEduardo Riedel 97.2%
Economista Renato Gomes 1.3%
João Henrique Catan <1%
Fábio Trad <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Riedel
97%
Economista Renato Gomes
1%
João Henrique Catan
1%
Fábio Trad
1%
Jeferson Bezerra
1%
Delcidio Amaral
<1%
Lucien Rezende
<1%
Daniel Lemes
<1%
Eduardo Riedel 97.2%
Economista Renato Gomes 1.3%
João Henrique Catan <1%
Fábio Trad <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Riedel
$7,437 Vol.
97%
Economista Renato Gomes
$362 Vol.
1%
João Henrique Catan
$262 Vol.
1%
Fábio Trad
$299 Vol.
1%
Jeferson Bezerra
$379 Vol.
1%
Delcidio Amaral
$351 Vol.
<1%
Lucien Rezende
$365 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Lemes
$364 Vol.
<1%
The Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Riedel’s commanding lead in the Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial race stems from his status as the incumbent PP governor seeking reelection, backed by a broad coalition that includes PL, MDB, Republicanos, and others. Recent AtlasIntel polling from late August to early September shows him at 49% in the first-round scenario—enough for an outright win on October 4—with Fábio Trad (PT) at 26% and João Henrique Catan (Novo) at 12%, while smaller candidates remain marginal. His 51% approval rating and consistent double-digit margins in multiple surveys reinforce trader consensus on a likely first-round victory. A major scandal, sharp economic reversal, or unexpected opposition consolidation could still alter dynamics before voting.
The Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:33 AM ET
Volume
$9,819End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Riedel’s commanding lead in the Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial race stems from his status as the incumbent PP governor seeking reelection, backed by a broad coalition that includes PL, MDB, Republicanos, and others. Recent AtlasIntel polling from late August to early September shows him at 49% in the first-round scenario—enough for an outright win on October 4—with Fábio Trad (PT) at 26% and João Henrique Catan (Novo) at 12%, while smaller candidates remain marginal. His 51% approval rating and consistent double-digit margins in multiple surveys reinforce trader consensus on a likely first-round victory. A major scandal, sharp economic reversal, or unexpected opposition consolidation could still alter dynamics before voting.
The Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$9,819End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Eduardo Riedel’s commanding lead in the Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial race stems from his status as the incumbent PP governor seeking reelection, backed by a broad coalition that includes PL, MDB, Republicanos, and others. Recent AtlasIntel polling from late August to early September shows him at 49% in the first-round scenario—enough for an outright win on October 4—with Fábio Trad (PT) at 26% and João Henrique Catan (Novo) at 12%, while smaller candidates remain marginal. His 51% approval rating and consistent double-digit margins in multiple surveys reinforce trader consensus on a likely first-round victory. A major scandal, sharp economic reversal, or unexpected opposition consolidation could still alter dynamics before voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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