Wellington Fagundes (PL) holds the leading position in the Mato Grosso governor race according to trader pricing, ahead of incumbent Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos). Recent surveys from late August and early September, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest, show Fagundes at 27-34% and Pivetta at 23-27% in the first round, with Doutora Natasha (PSD) a distant third near 8-13%. Both frontrunners draw from the state's right-leaning electorate, but Fagundes benefits from PL alignment and bolsonarista support networks, while Pivetta, who assumed the governorship in March 2026 after Mauro Mendes resigned, relies on União Brasil continuity. Second-round simulations consistently favor Fagundes. The October 4 first-round vote remains competitive, with low support for other registered candidates and potential for a runoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWellington Fagundes 71%
Otaviano Pivetta 31%
Mauricio Coelho <1%
Sargento Laudicério <1%
$22,417 Vol.
$22,417 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Wellington Fagundes
71%
Otaviano Pivetta
31%
Mauricio Coelho
<1%
Sargento Laudicério
<1%
Doutora Natasha
<1%
Rafaell Milas
<1%
Wellington Fagundes 71%
Otaviano Pivetta 31%
Mauricio Coelho <1%
Sargento Laudicério <1%
$22,417 Vol.
$22,417 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Wellington Fagundes
$12,158 Vol.
71%
Otaviano Pivetta
$6,741 Vol.
31%
Mauricio Coelho
$964 Vol.
<1%
Sargento Laudicério
$689 Vol.
<1%
Doutora Natasha
$995 Vol.
<1%
Rafaell Milas
$870 Vol.
<1%
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Wellington Fagundes (PL) holds the leading position in the Mato Grosso governor race according to trader pricing, ahead of incumbent Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos). Recent surveys from late August and early September, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest, show Fagundes at 27-34% and Pivetta at 23-27% in the first round, with Doutora Natasha (PSD) a distant third near 8-13%. Both frontrunners draw from the state's right-leaning electorate, but Fagundes benefits from PL alignment and bolsonarista support networks, while Pivetta, who assumed the governorship in March 2026 after Mauro Mendes resigned, relies on União Brasil continuity. Second-round simulations consistently favor Fagundes. The October 4 first-round vote remains competitive, with low support for other registered candidates and potential for a runoff.
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ET
Volume
$22,417End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Wellington Fagundes (PL) holds the leading position in the Mato Grosso governor race according to trader pricing, ahead of incumbent Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos). Recent surveys from late August and early September, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest, show Fagundes at 27-34% and Pivetta at 23-27% in the first round, with Doutora Natasha (PSD) a distant third near 8-13%. Both frontrunners draw from the state's right-leaning electorate, but Fagundes benefits from PL alignment and bolsonarista support networks, while Pivetta, who assumed the governorship in March 2026 after Mauro Mendes resigned, relies on União Brasil continuity. Second-round simulations consistently favor Fagundes. The October 4 first-round vote remains competitive, with low support for other registered candidates and potential for a runoff.
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$22,417End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wellington Fagundes (PL) holds the leading position in the Mato Grosso governor race according to trader pricing, ahead of incumbent Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos). Recent surveys from late August and early September, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest, show Fagundes at 27-34% and Pivetta at 23-27% in the first round, with Doutora Natasha (PSD) a distant third near 8-13%. Both frontrunners draw from the state's right-leaning electorate, but Fagundes benefits from PL alignment and bolsonarista support networks, while Pivetta, who assumed the governorship in March 2026 after Mauro Mendes resigned, relies on União Brasil continuity. Second-round simulations consistently favor Fagundes. The October 4 first-round vote remains competitive, with low support for other registered candidates and potential for a runoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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