Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins

Lula 68%

Flavio Bolsonaro 33%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Polymarket

$22,525 Vol.

Lula 68%

Flavio Bolsonaro 33%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Polymarket

$22,525 Vol.

icon for Lula

Lula

$5,762 Vol.

68%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$10,637 Vol.

33%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$542 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$575 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$342 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$1,256 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$406 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$438 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$601 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$448 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$558 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$432 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$527 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent state-level polling in Tocantins shows President Lula (PT) holding a narrow edge or statistical tie with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) for first-round presidential votes, with Lula at 36-39% and Flávio at 32-36% in late August surveys from Quaest and Real Time. Lower-polling names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Pablo Marçal register in single digits or below, aligning with their limited regional traction. Tocantins delivered close national results in 2022, when Lula won the state by under three points, and current trader pricing reflects that competitive baseline plus the absence of major new catalysts in the final month before the October 4 vote. Market odds treat Lula as the consensus leader while assigning meaningful probability to a Flávio upset in this right-leaning northern state.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$22,525
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent state-level polling in Tocantins shows President Lula (PT) holding a narrow edge or statistical tie with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) for first-round presidential votes, with Lula at 36-39% and Flávio at 32-36% in late August surveys from Quaest and Real Time. Lower-polling names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Pablo Marçal register in single digits or below, aligning with their limited regional traction. Tocantins delivered close national results in 2022, when Lula won the state by under three points, and current trader pricing reflects that competitive baseline plus the absence of major new catalysts in the final month before the October 4 vote. Market odds treat Lula as the consensus leader while assigning meaningful probability to a Flávio upset in this right-leaning northern state.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$22,525
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

90%
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

82%
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Santa Catarina?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Santa Catarina?

97%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lula" at 68%, followed by "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 68¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins" has generated $22.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins" is "Lula" at 68%, meaning the market assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.