Recent polls in São Paulo, Brazil’s largest electoral college, show Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holding a narrow lead or technical tie with incumbent President Lula (PT) in first-round voting intentions, with the senator at 30% versus 29% in the latest Quaest survey and similar margins in Datafolha and Real Time Big Data samples from late August. This positioning stems from Flávio’s consolidation as the Liberal Party nominee and standard-bearer for the right-wing electorate following his July convention in the state, combined with Lula’s comparatively weaker performance among paulista voters amid ongoing disapproval ratings near 58%. Minor candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos register in low single digits, limiting vote fragmentation risks for the top two. Scheduled September debates and Independence Day rallies in the state could further influence turnout and margins ahead of the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 86%
Lula 12.9%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$19,878 Vol.
$19,878 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
86%
Lula
13%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 86%
Lula 12.9%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Renan Santos <1%
$19,878 Vol.
$19,878 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$6,633 Vol.
86%
Lula
$6,420 Vol.
13%
Pablo Marçal
$1,101 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$1,350 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$427 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$426 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$421 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$418 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$543 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$588 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$426 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$714 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$412 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls in São Paulo, Brazil’s largest electoral college, show Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holding a narrow lead or technical tie with incumbent President Lula (PT) in first-round voting intentions, with the senator at 30% versus 29% in the latest Quaest survey and similar margins in Datafolha and Real Time Big Data samples from late August. This positioning stems from Flávio’s consolidation as the Liberal Party nominee and standard-bearer for the right-wing electorate following his July convention in the state, combined with Lula’s comparatively weaker performance among paulista voters amid ongoing disapproval ratings near 58%. Minor candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos register in low single digits, limiting vote fragmentation risks for the top two. Scheduled September debates and Independence Day rallies in the state could further influence turnout and margins ahead of the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$19,878End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls in São Paulo, Brazil’s largest electoral college, show Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holding a narrow lead or technical tie with incumbent President Lula (PT) in first-round voting intentions, with the senator at 30% versus 29% in the latest Quaest survey and similar margins in Datafolha and Real Time Big Data samples from late August. This positioning stems from Flávio’s consolidation as the Liberal Party nominee and standard-bearer for the right-wing electorate following his July convention in the state, combined with Lula’s comparatively weaker performance among paulista voters amid ongoing disapproval ratings near 58%. Minor candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos register in low single digits, limiting vote fragmentation risks for the top two. Scheduled September debates and Independence Day rallies in the state could further influence turnout and margins ahead of the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$19,878End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls in São Paulo, Brazil’s largest electoral college, show Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holding a narrow lead or technical tie with incumbent President Lula (PT) in first-round voting intentions, with the senator at 30% versus 29% in the latest Quaest survey and similar margins in Datafolha and Real Time Big Data samples from late August. This positioning stems from Flávio’s consolidation as the Liberal Party nominee and standard-bearer for the right-wing electorate following his July convention in the state, combined with Lula’s comparatively weaker performance among paulista voters amid ongoing disapproval ratings near 58%. Minor candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos register in low single digits, limiting vote fragmentation risks for the top two. Scheduled September debates and Independence Day rallies in the state could further influence turnout and margins ahead of the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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