Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná
Elections·Main Election

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná
Elections·Main Election

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná

Flavio Bolsonaro 95%

Lula 3.1%

Renan Santos <1%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Flavio Bolsonaro 95%

Lula 3.1%

Renan Santos <1%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$2,997 Vol.

95%

icon for Lula

Lula

$330 Vol.

3%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$336 Vol.

1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$516 Vol.

1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$413 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$511 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$544 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$516 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$467 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$517 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$511 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$533 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$434 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Paraná first-round polling due to the state's strong conservative electorate and sustained support for the Liberal Party ticket. Recent surveys, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest, show him at 41-44% against Lula's 23-30%, with other candidates like Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, and Ronaldo Caiado in single digits. His official nomination, alliances with local figures such as Senator Sergio Moro, and active campaigning in the state reinforce trader consensus. National trends remain tighter, but Paraná-specific dynamics and high rejection of the incumbent favor the frontrunner. Late shifts from scandals, unexpected surges by minor candidates, or turnout changes could narrow margins before October voting.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,624
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Paraná first-round polling due to the state's strong conservative electorate and sustained support for the Liberal Party ticket. Recent surveys, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest, show him at 41-44% against Lula's 23-30%, with other candidates like Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, and Ronaldo Caiado in single digits. His official nomination, alliances with local figures such as Senator Sergio Moro, and active campaigning in the state reinforce trader consensus. National trends remain tighter, but Paraná-specific dynamics and high rejection of the incumbent favor the frontrunner. Late shifts from scandals, unexpected surges by minor candidates, or turnout changes could narrow margins before October voting.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,624
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?

85%
icon for Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

90%
icon for Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Bahia?

Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Bahia?

97%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 95%, followed by "Lula" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lula" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.