Recent opinion polls show a tight four-way contest for the September 20 Berlin state election, with the CDU, Linke, AfD, and Greens clustered between roughly 18% and 22% support. This narrow spread among parties clearing the 5% threshold creates substantial uncertainty in seat projections for the 130-member Abgeordnetenhaus, as small vote shifts can alter CDU totals by several mandates. The CDU has recovered modestly in late August surveys after replacing its prior lead candidate, while the SPD remains weak and smaller parties like the FDP and BSW appear unlikely to enter parliament. Resulting coalition math and turnout patterns in the final weeks will determine whether CDU seat outcomes cluster in the low-to-mid 30s or push higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBerlin State Elections: CDU # of seats?
Berlin State Elections: CDU # of seats?
35-39 37%
30-34 30%
40-44 20.1%
25-29 10%
$33,433 Vol.
$33,433 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<25
2%
25-29
10%
30-34
30%
35-39
37%
40-44
20%
45+
4%
35-39 37%
30-34 30%
40-44 20.1%
25-29 10%
$33,433 Vol.
$33,433 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<25
$1,171 Vol.
2%
25-29
$3,358 Vol.
10%
30-34
$1,764 Vol.
30%
35-39
$4,171 Vol.
37%
40-44
$3,341 Vol.
20%
45+
$19,628 Vol.
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent opinion polls show a tight four-way contest for the September 20 Berlin state election, with the CDU, Linke, AfD, and Greens clustered between roughly 18% and 22% support. This narrow spread among parties clearing the 5% threshold creates substantial uncertainty in seat projections for the 130-member Abgeordnetenhaus, as small vote shifts can alter CDU totals by several mandates. The CDU has recovered modestly in late August surveys after replacing its prior lead candidate, while the SPD remains weak and smaller parties like the FDP and BSW appear unlikely to enter parliament. Resulting coalition math and turnout patterns in the final weeks will determine whether CDU seat outcomes cluster in the low-to-mid 30s or push higher.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 8:12 PM ET
Volume
$33,433End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 8:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent opinion polls show a tight four-way contest for the September 20 Berlin state election, with the CDU, Linke, AfD, and Greens clustered between roughly 18% and 22% support. This narrow spread among parties clearing the 5% threshold creates substantial uncertainty in seat projections for the 130-member Abgeordnetenhaus, as small vote shifts can alter CDU totals by several mandates. The CDU has recovered modestly in late August surveys after replacing its prior lead candidate, while the SPD remains weak and smaller parties like the FDP and BSW appear unlikely to enter parliament. Resulting coalition math and turnout patterns in the final weeks will determine whether CDU seat outcomes cluster in the low-to-mid 30s or push higher.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$33,433End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 8:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent opinion polls show a tight four-way contest for the September 20 Berlin state election, with the CDU, Linke, AfD, and Greens clustered between roughly 18% and 22% support. This narrow spread among parties clearing the 5% threshold creates substantial uncertainty in seat projections for the 130-member Abgeordnetenhaus, as small vote shifts can alter CDU totals by several mandates. The CDU has recovered modestly in late August surveys after replacing its prior lead candidate, while the SPD remains weak and smaller parties like the FDP and BSW appear unlikely to enter parliament. Resulting coalition math and turnout patterns in the final weeks will determine whether CDU seat outcomes cluster in the low-to-mid 30s or push higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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