Lula maintains a commanding lead in Bahia for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round, backed by consistent polling showing him at 50-53% or higher through recent months. The state’s strong historical alignment with the Workers’ Party and the president’s personal popularity in the Northeast underpin this position, reinforced by government approval ratings near 60%. Recent surveys from Quaest and AtlasIntel indicate that roughly three-quarters of voters have settled on their choice, with Flávio Bolsonaro trailing well behind at 16-24% and no other contender reaching double digits. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major late shifts in the state’s electorate. Potential disruptions remain limited to unexpected national developments or turnout surges among undecided voters in the final weeks before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 98.7%
Flavio Bolsonaro <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$10,260 Vol.
$10,260 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
99%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Lula 98.7%
Flavio Bolsonaro <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$10,260 Vol.
$10,260 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$5,149 Vol.
99%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$490 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$459 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$383 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$459 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$371 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$451 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$451 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$231 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$455 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$463 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$458 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$439 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Bahia for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round, backed by consistent polling showing him at 50-53% or higher through recent months. The state’s strong historical alignment with the Workers’ Party and the president’s personal popularity in the Northeast underpin this position, reinforced by government approval ratings near 60%. Recent surveys from Quaest and AtlasIntel indicate that roughly three-quarters of voters have settled on their choice, with Flávio Bolsonaro trailing well behind at 16-24% and no other contender reaching double digits. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major late shifts in the state’s electorate. Potential disruptions remain limited to unexpected national developments or turnout surges among undecided voters in the final weeks before the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Volume
$10,260End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Bahia for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round, backed by consistent polling showing him at 50-53% or higher through recent months. The state’s strong historical alignment with the Workers’ Party and the president’s personal popularity in the Northeast underpin this position, reinforced by government approval ratings near 60%. Recent surveys from Quaest and AtlasIntel indicate that roughly three-quarters of voters have settled on their choice, with Flávio Bolsonaro trailing well behind at 16-24% and no other contender reaching double digits. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major late shifts in the state’s electorate. Potential disruptions remain limited to unexpected national developments or turnout surges among undecided voters in the final weeks before the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$10,260End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Bahia for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round, backed by consistent polling showing him at 50-53% or higher through recent months. The state’s strong historical alignment with the Workers’ Party and the president’s personal popularity in the Northeast underpin this position, reinforced by government approval ratings near 60%. Recent surveys from Quaest and AtlasIntel indicate that roughly three-quarters of voters have settled on their choice, with Flávio Bolsonaro trailing well behind at 16-24% and no other contender reaching double digits. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major late shifts in the state’s electorate. Potential disruptions remain limited to unexpected national developments or turnout surges among undecided voters in the final weeks before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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