The São Paulo Senate race for two seats remains tightly contested ahead of the October 4 election, with recent Quaest polling showing Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB) in a technical tie at 11-12% each when combining first and second preferences. Derrite, backed by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas’s coalition, competes directly against the ex-ministers aligned with Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial ticket. High undecided rates (27%) and blank/null intentions (18%) continue to compress separation among frontrunners, while lower-polling names such as André do Prado and Ricardo Salles trail further back. Campaign events linking the Senate hopefuls to their respective state tickets and occasional exchanges over policy records have yet to shift the narrow margins materially.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGuilherme Derrite 45%
Simone Tebet 25.8%
Marina Silva 14%
André do Prado 3.9%
$40,474 Vol.
$40,474 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Guilherme Derrite
45%
Simone Tebet
26%
Marina Silva
14%
André do Prado
4%
Salles
2%
Soninha Francine
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
William Teixeira
<1%
Maíra de Souza
<1%
Marcio Alves
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Guilherme Derrite 45%
Simone Tebet 25.8%
Marina Silva 14%
André do Prado 3.9%
$40,474 Vol.
$40,474 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Guilherme Derrite
$24,932 Vol.
45%
Simone Tebet
$1,932 Vol.
26%
Marina Silva
$4,494 Vol.
14%
André do Prado
$2,379 Vol.
4%
Salles
$1,951 Vol.
2%
Soninha Francine
$474 Vol.
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
$383 Vol.
<1%
William Teixeira
$733 Vol.
<1%
Maíra de Souza
$396 Vol.
<1%
Marcio Alves
$552 Vol.
<1%
Petter Maahs
$419 Vol.
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$613 Vol.
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$737 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
$480 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The São Paulo Senate race for two seats remains tightly contested ahead of the October 4 election, with recent Quaest polling showing Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB) in a technical tie at 11-12% each when combining first and second preferences. Derrite, backed by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas’s coalition, competes directly against the ex-ministers aligned with Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial ticket. High undecided rates (27%) and blank/null intentions (18%) continue to compress separation among frontrunners, while lower-polling names such as André do Prado and Ricardo Salles trail further back. Campaign events linking the Senate hopefuls to their respective state tickets and occasional exchanges over policy records have yet to shift the narrow margins materially.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$40,474End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The São Paulo Senate race for two seats remains tightly contested ahead of the October 4 election, with recent Quaest polling showing Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB) in a technical tie at 11-12% each when combining first and second preferences. Derrite, backed by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas’s coalition, competes directly against the ex-ministers aligned with Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial ticket. High undecided rates (27%) and blank/null intentions (18%) continue to compress separation among frontrunners, while lower-polling names such as André do Prado and Ricardo Salles trail further back. Campaign events linking the Senate hopefuls to their respective state tickets and occasional exchanges over policy records have yet to shift the narrow margins materially.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$40,474End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo Senate race for two seats remains tightly contested ahead of the October 4 election, with recent Quaest polling showing Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), and Simone Tebet (PSB) in a technical tie at 11-12% each when combining first and second preferences. Derrite, backed by Governor Tarcísio de Freitas’s coalition, competes directly against the ex-ministers aligned with Fernando Haddad’s gubernatorial ticket. High undecided rates (27%) and blank/null intentions (18%) continue to compress separation among frontrunners, while lower-polling names such as André do Prado and Ricardo Salles trail further back. Campaign events linking the Senate hopefuls to their respective state tickets and occasional exchanges over policy records have yet to shift the narrow margins materially.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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