Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds a dominant position in the Pará Senate race for first place, backed by consistent polling leads of 21–40% in recent surveys from institutes like Quaest, RealTime, and Simetria through late August. As the outgoing governor with strong name recognition from his 2018 and 2022 victories, he benefits from a broad coalition including MDB allies and family political infrastructure tied to longtime senator Jader Barbalho. The October 4 election renews two seats, with voters selecting two candidates, yet Helder’s first-preference support far exceeds rivals. Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) trails as the main challenger at lower double digits, while incumbent Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) and others like Celso Sabino remain fragmented below 15%. No major late shifts have altered the frontrunner dynamic in the final month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHelder 71%
Delegado Éder Mauro 20.5%
Zequinha Marinho 5.9%
Edlaine Rodrigues 3.5%
$15,686 Vol.
$15,686 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Helder
71%
Delegado Éder Mauro
21%
Zequinha Marinho
6%
Edlaine Rodrigues
3%
Conti
1%
Breno Guimarães
1%
Celso Sabino
1%
Chicão
1%
Gizelle Freitas
1%
Fernanda Lopes
1%
Willem da Silva
<1%
Helder 71%
Delegado Éder Mauro 20.5%
Zequinha Marinho 5.9%
Edlaine Rodrigues 3.5%
$15,686 Vol.
$15,686 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Helder
$10,647 Vol.
71%
Delegado Éder Mauro
$575 Vol.
21%
Zequinha Marinho
$514 Vol.
6%
Edlaine Rodrigues
$545 Vol.
3%
Conti
$496 Vol.
1%
Breno Guimarães
$474 Vol.
1%
Celso Sabino
$444 Vol.
1%
Chicão
$433 Vol.
1%
Gizelle Freitas
$507 Vol.
1%
Fernanda Lopes
$671 Vol.
1%
Willem da Silva
$381 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds a dominant position in the Pará Senate race for first place, backed by consistent polling leads of 21–40% in recent surveys from institutes like Quaest, RealTime, and Simetria through late August. As the outgoing governor with strong name recognition from his 2018 and 2022 victories, he benefits from a broad coalition including MDB allies and family political infrastructure tied to longtime senator Jader Barbalho. The October 4 election renews two seats, with voters selecting two candidates, yet Helder’s first-preference support far exceeds rivals. Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) trails as the main challenger at lower double digits, while incumbent Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) and others like Celso Sabino remain fragmented below 15%. No major late shifts have altered the frontrunner dynamic in the final month.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$15,686End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds a dominant position in the Pará Senate race for first place, backed by consistent polling leads of 21–40% in recent surveys from institutes like Quaest, RealTime, and Simetria through late August. As the outgoing governor with strong name recognition from his 2018 and 2022 victories, he benefits from a broad coalition including MDB allies and family political infrastructure tied to longtime senator Jader Barbalho. The October 4 election renews two seats, with voters selecting two candidates, yet Helder’s first-preference support far exceeds rivals. Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) trails as the main challenger at lower double digits, while incumbent Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) and others like Celso Sabino remain fragmented below 15%. No major late shifts have altered the frontrunner dynamic in the final month.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$15,686End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds a dominant position in the Pará Senate race for first place, backed by consistent polling leads of 21–40% in recent surveys from institutes like Quaest, RealTime, and Simetria through late August. As the outgoing governor with strong name recognition from his 2018 and 2022 victories, he benefits from a broad coalition including MDB allies and family political infrastructure tied to longtime senator Jader Barbalho. The October 4 election renews two seats, with voters selecting two candidates, yet Helder’s first-preference support far exceeds rivals. Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) trails as the main challenger at lower double digits, while incumbent Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) and others like Celso Sabino remain fragmented below 15%. No major late shifts have altered the frontrunner dynamic in the final month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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