Lula's efforts to fill the STF vacancy left by Luís Roberto Barroso's 2025 early retirement face ongoing Senate resistance following the April 2026 rejection of nominee Jorge Messias by a 42-34 vote—the first such defeat in over a century. The president has publicly reaffirmed his intent to submit Messias again or name an alternative, with recent reporting indicating consideration of technical-profile candidate Ricardo Couto, interim governor of Rio de Janeiro, potentially to strengthen institutional positioning or electoral support ahead of the October 2026 general election. Any new announcement requires navigating Senate President Davi Alcolumbre's influence and securing an absolute majority of 41 votes for confirmation, though the market resolves on the announcement itself rather than approval. Coalition negotiations and pre-election timing pressures remain central variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$23,423 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
28%
December 31
47%
$23,423 Vol.
September 30
$4,079 Vol.
28%
December 31
$5,595 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lula's efforts to fill the STF vacancy left by Luís Roberto Barroso's 2025 early retirement face ongoing Senate resistance following the April 2026 rejection of nominee Jorge Messias by a 42-34 vote—the first such defeat in over a century. The president has publicly reaffirmed his intent to submit Messias again or name an alternative, with recent reporting indicating consideration of technical-profile candidate Ricardo Couto, interim governor of Rio de Janeiro, potentially to strengthen institutional positioning or electoral support ahead of the October 2026 general election. Any new announcement requires navigating Senate President Davi Alcolumbre's influence and securing an absolute majority of 41 votes for confirmation, though the market resolves on the announcement itself rather than approval. Coalition negotiations and pre-election timing pressures remain central variables.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volume
$23,423End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lula's efforts to fill the STF vacancy left by Luís Roberto Barroso's 2025 early retirement face ongoing Senate resistance following the April 2026 rejection of nominee Jorge Messias by a 42-34 vote—the first such defeat in over a century. The president has publicly reaffirmed his intent to submit Messias again or name an alternative, with recent reporting indicating consideration of technical-profile candidate Ricardo Couto, interim governor of Rio de Janeiro, potentially to strengthen institutional positioning or electoral support ahead of the October 2026 general election. Any new announcement requires navigating Senate President Davi Alcolumbre's influence and securing an absolute majority of 41 votes for confirmation, though the market resolves on the announcement itself rather than approval. Coalition negotiations and pre-election timing pressures remain central variables.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$23,423End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lula's efforts to fill the STF vacancy left by Luís Roberto Barroso's 2025 early retirement face ongoing Senate resistance following the April 2026 rejection of nominee Jorge Messias by a 42-34 vote—the first such defeat in over a century. The president has publicly reaffirmed his intent to submit Messias again or name an alternative, with recent reporting indicating consideration of technical-profile candidate Ricardo Couto, interim governor of Rio de Janeiro, potentially to strengthen institutional positioning or electoral support ahead of the October 2026 general election. Any new announcement requires navigating Senate President Davi Alcolumbre's influence and securing an absolute majority of 41 votes for confirmation, though the market resolves on the announcement itself rather than approval. Coalition negotiations and pre-election timing pressures remain central variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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