No immediate Supreme Court vacancy exists, as Justices Alito and Thomas have signaled plans to serve another term, leaving the field open and contributing to the tight distribution of probabilities among multiple contenders. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over timing and selection criteria, with emphasis on Trump-appointed appeals court judges such as James Ho, Andrew Oldham, Gregory Katsas, and others who align with administration priorities on judicial philosophy. Recent developments include Ted Cruz's public rejection of interest in early September and ongoing discussions of nontraditional picks like Solicitor General John Sauer or Senator Mike Lee. Senate Republican control supports confirmation prospects, though any vacancy before midterms could introduce procedural variables. Future separation among candidates may hinge on retirements, explicit White House signals, or Senate Judiciary Committee dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWho will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?
Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?
James Ho 19%
Andrew Oldham 13%
Gregory Katsas 11.1%
Amul Thapar 9%
NEW
NEW
Jan 19, 2029
James Ho
19%
Andrew Oldham
13%
Gregory Katsas
11%
Amul Thapar
9%
Steven Menashi
9%
Patrick Bumatay
8%
Neomi Rao
8%
Mike Lee
5%
John Sauer
4%
Aileen Cannon
4%
Ted Cruz
14%
James Ho 19%
Andrew Oldham 13%
Gregory Katsas 11.1%
Amul Thapar 9%
NEW
NEW
Jan 19, 2029
James Ho
$644 Vol.
19%
Andrew Oldham
$637 Vol.
13%
Gregory Katsas
$147 Vol.
11%
Amul Thapar
$918 Vol.
9%
Steven Menashi
$105 Vol.
9%
Patrick Bumatay
$1,519 Vol.
8%
Neomi Rao
$108 Vol.
8%
Mike Lee
$125 Vol.
5%
John Sauer
$121 Vol.
4%
Aileen Cannon
$295 Vol.
4%
Ted Cruz
$160 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No immediate Supreme Court vacancy exists, as Justices Alito and Thomas have signaled plans to serve another term, leaving the field open and contributing to the tight distribution of probabilities among multiple contenders. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over timing and selection criteria, with emphasis on Trump-appointed appeals court judges such as James Ho, Andrew Oldham, Gregory Katsas, and others who align with administration priorities on judicial philosophy. Recent developments include Ted Cruz's public rejection of interest in early September and ongoing discussions of nontraditional picks like Solicitor General John Sauer or Senator Mike Lee. Senate Republican control supports confirmation prospects, though any vacancy before midterms could introduce procedural variables. Future separation among candidates may hinge on retirements, explicit White House signals, or Senate Judiciary Committee dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$4,779End Date
Jan 19, 2029Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No immediate Supreme Court vacancy exists, as Justices Alito and Thomas have signaled plans to serve another term, leaving the field open and contributing to the tight distribution of probabilities among multiple contenders. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over timing and selection criteria, with emphasis on Trump-appointed appeals court judges such as James Ho, Andrew Oldham, Gregory Katsas, and others who align with administration priorities on judicial philosophy. Recent developments include Ted Cruz's public rejection of interest in early September and ongoing discussions of nontraditional picks like Solicitor General John Sauer or Senator Mike Lee. Senate Republican control supports confirmation prospects, though any vacancy before midterms could introduce procedural variables. Future separation among candidates may hinge on retirements, explicit White House signals, or Senate Judiciary Committee dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.
If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,779End Date
Jan 19, 2029Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...No immediate Supreme Court vacancy exists, as Justices Alito and Thomas have signaled plans to serve another term, leaving the field open and contributing to the tight distribution of probabilities among multiple contenders. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over timing and selection criteria, with emphasis on Trump-appointed appeals court judges such as James Ho, Andrew Oldham, Gregory Katsas, and others who align with administration priorities on judicial philosophy. Recent developments include Ted Cruz's public rejection of interest in early September and ongoing discussions of nontraditional picks like Solicitor General John Sauer or Senator Mike Lee. Senate Republican control supports confirmation prospects, though any vacancy before midterms could introduce procedural variables. Future separation among candidates may hinge on retirements, explicit White House signals, or Senate Judiciary Committee dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions