**Jaques Wagner leads the implied probability for second place in Bahia’s October 4 Senate election at 63%, well ahead of Angelo Coronel (17%), Rui Costa (15%), and João Roma (5%), with all others at 1% or less.** Recent August polling from Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas shows Rui Costa (PT) consistently ahead overall (22–43% combined or first-preference support), while Jaques Wagner (PT) ranks second in aggregate and often leads or places strongly on the second-vote preference that determines the second seat. Both PT names far outpace opposition figures, including re-election-seeking Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) and João Roma (PL), who register in the mid-single to low-double digits. This positioning reflects Bahia’s established PT electoral base, high name recognition for the two ex-governors/ministers, and the mechanics of a two-seat, single-round contest where vote splitting favors the stronger party ticket. No major shifts have emerged since late-August surveys, though the race remains subject to final campaign dynamics and turnout patterns before the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBahia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Bahia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Jaques Wagner 63%
Angelo Coronel 17.0%
Rui Costa 14.5%
João Roma 4.6%
$29,997 Vol.
$29,997 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jaques Wagner
63%
Angelo Coronel
17%
Rui Costa
15%
João Roma
5%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Jaques Wagner 63%
Angelo Coronel 17.0%
Rui Costa 14.5%
João Roma 4.6%
$29,997 Vol.
$29,997 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jaques Wagner
$19,112 Vol.
63%
Angelo Coronel
$1,506 Vol.
17%
Rui Costa
$4,601 Vol.
15%
João Roma
$989 Vol.
5%
Carlos Sodré
$652 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$570 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$488 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$673 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$654 Vol.
<1%
Professora Delliana
$751 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Jaques Wagner leads the implied probability for second place in Bahia’s October 4 Senate election at 63%, well ahead of Angelo Coronel (17%), Rui Costa (15%), and João Roma (5%), with all others at 1% or less.**
Recent August polling from Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas shows Rui Costa (PT) consistently ahead overall (22–43% combined or first-preference support), while Jaques Wagner (PT) ranks second in aggregate and often leads or places strongly on the second-vote preference that determines the second seat. Both PT names far outpace opposition figures, including re-election-seeking Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) and João Roma (PL), who register in the mid-single to low-double digits.
This positioning reflects Bahia’s established PT electoral base, high name recognition for the two ex-governors/ministers, and the mechanics of a two-seat, single-round contest where vote splitting favors the stronger party ticket. No major shifts have emerged since late-August surveys, though the race remains subject to final campaign dynamics and turnout patterns before the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$29,997End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Jaques Wagner leads the implied probability for second place in Bahia’s October 4 Senate election at 63%, well ahead of Angelo Coronel (17%), Rui Costa (15%), and João Roma (5%), with all others at 1% or less.**
Recent August polling from Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas shows Rui Costa (PT) consistently ahead overall (22–43% combined or first-preference support), while Jaques Wagner (PT) ranks second in aggregate and often leads or places strongly on the second-vote preference that determines the second seat. Both PT names far outpace opposition figures, including re-election-seeking Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) and João Roma (PL), who register in the mid-single to low-double digits.
This positioning reflects Bahia’s established PT electoral base, high name recognition for the two ex-governors/ministers, and the mechanics of a two-seat, single-round contest where vote splitting favors the stronger party ticket. No major shifts have emerged since late-August surveys, though the race remains subject to final campaign dynamics and turnout patterns before the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$29,997End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Jaques Wagner leads the implied probability for second place in Bahia’s October 4 Senate election at 63%, well ahead of Angelo Coronel (17%), Rui Costa (15%), and João Roma (5%), with all others at 1% or less.** Recent August polling from Quaest and Paraná Pesquisas shows Rui Costa (PT) consistently ahead overall (22–43% combined or first-preference support), while Jaques Wagner (PT) ranks second in aggregate and often leads or places strongly on the second-vote preference that determines the second seat. Both PT names far outpace opposition figures, including re-election-seeking Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) and João Roma (PL), who register in the mid-single to low-double digits. This positioning reflects Bahia’s established PT electoral base, high name recognition for the two ex-governors/ministers, and the mechanics of a two-seat, single-round contest where vote splitting favors the stronger party ticket. No major shifts have emerged since late-August surveys, though the race remains subject to final campaign dynamics and turnout patterns before the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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