João Azevêdo (PSB), the former Paraíba governor who stepped down after two terms to contest the Senate, holds an 81.5% implied probability for first place in the October 4, 2026, election for one of two seats. Recent August 2026 polls, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys, show him leading with 27–38% support in consolidated first- and second-vote scenarios, well ahead of incumbent senator Veneziano Vital do Rêgo (MDB) at 17–23%. Azevêdo’s strong name recognition from statewide executive experience and early consolidation of support among key voter bases explain the market positioning. Veneziano, seeking re-election, trails at 14.5% amid fragmented opposition from candidates like Nabor Wanderley and Marcelo Queiroga. No major shifts have occurred since late-August polling, leaving the race’s top outcome stable in trader assessments ahead of the single-round vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJoao Azevêdo 80%
Veneziano 14.9%
Nabor 4.8%
Major Fábio <1%
$13,062 Vol.
$13,062 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Joao Azevêdo
80%
Veneziano
15%
Nabor
5%
Major Fábio
1%
João Batista
<1%
André Gadelha
<1%
Dr. Marcelo Queiroga
<1%
Rinaldo Júnior
<1%
Adriano Trajano
<1%
Rosilene Santana
<1%
Joao Azevêdo 80%
Veneziano 14.9%
Nabor 4.8%
Major Fábio <1%
$13,062 Vol.
$13,062 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Joao Azevêdo
$8,057 Vol.
80%
Veneziano
$1,822 Vol.
15%
Nabor
$498 Vol.
5%
Major Fábio
$334 Vol.
1%
João Batista
$342 Vol.
<1%
André Gadelha
$384 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Marcelo Queiroga
$347 Vol.
<1%
Rinaldo Júnior
$390 Vol.
<1%
Adriano Trajano
$421 Vol.
<1%
Rosilene Santana
$469 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraíba is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).João Azevêdo (PSB), the former Paraíba governor who stepped down after two terms to contest the Senate, holds an 81.5% implied probability for first place in the October 4, 2026, election for one of two seats. Recent August 2026 polls, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys, show him leading with 27–38% support in consolidated first- and second-vote scenarios, well ahead of incumbent senator Veneziano Vital do Rêgo (MDB) at 17–23%. Azevêdo’s strong name recognition from statewide executive experience and early consolidation of support among key voter bases explain the market positioning. Veneziano, seeking re-election, trails at 14.5% amid fragmented opposition from candidates like Nabor Wanderley and Marcelo Queiroga. No major shifts have occurred since late-August polling, leaving the race’s top outcome stable in trader assessments ahead of the single-round vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraíba is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$13,062End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraíba is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).João Azevêdo (PSB), the former Paraíba governor who stepped down after two terms to contest the Senate, holds an 81.5% implied probability for first place in the October 4, 2026, election for one of two seats. Recent August 2026 polls, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys, show him leading with 27–38% support in consolidated first- and second-vote scenarios, well ahead of incumbent senator Veneziano Vital do Rêgo (MDB) at 17–23%. Azevêdo’s strong name recognition from statewide executive experience and early consolidation of support among key voter bases explain the market positioning. Veneziano, seeking re-election, trails at 14.5% amid fragmented opposition from candidates like Nabor Wanderley and Marcelo Queiroga. No major shifts have occurred since late-August polling, leaving the race’s top outcome stable in trader assessments ahead of the single-round vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraíba is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$13,062End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...João Azevêdo (PSB), the former Paraíba governor who stepped down after two terms to contest the Senate, holds an 81.5% implied probability for first place in the October 4, 2026, election for one of two seats. Recent August 2026 polls, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys, show him leading with 27–38% support in consolidated first- and second-vote scenarios, well ahead of incumbent senator Veneziano Vital do Rêgo (MDB) at 17–23%. Azevêdo’s strong name recognition from statewide executive experience and early consolidation of support among key voter bases explain the market positioning. Veneziano, seeking re-election, trails at 14.5% amid fragmented opposition from candidates like Nabor Wanderley and Marcelo Queiroga. No major shifts have occurred since late-August polling, leaving the race’s top outcome stable in trader assessments ahead of the single-round vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions