Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the strongest position for first place in Pernambuco’s October 4 Senate contest, backed by repeated polling leads across institutes including Real Time Big Data and Datafolha. Recent surveys from late August and early September show her consolidating 15–29% of first-plus-second preferences, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL), who remain statistically tied or narrowly behind in the battle for the second seat. The state elects two senators in a single round, amplifying the value of broad name recognition and alliances for Arraes, whose support has proven stable despite high undecided and blank/null shares. Trader pricing reflects this sustained advantage while assigning lower probabilities to trailing candidates amid limited recent shifts in voter intention or campaign dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarília Arraes 57%
Humberto Costa 23.9%
Mendonça Filho 10.3%
Eduardo da Fonte 7.1%
$26,854 Vol.
$26,854 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
57%
Humberto Costa
21%
Mendonça Filho
10%
Eduardo da Fonte
7%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Marília Arraes 57%
Humberto Costa 23.9%
Mendonça Filho 10.3%
Eduardo da Fonte 7.1%
$26,854 Vol.
$26,854 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
$12,563 Vol.
57%
Humberto Costa
$7,998 Vol.
21%
Mendonça Filho
$1,269 Vol.
10%
Eduardo da Fonte
$804 Vol.
7%
Mariano Macedo
$470 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$542 Vol.
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
$567 Vol.
<1%
Gorett Bitu
$552 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$549 Vol.
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$517 Vol.
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
$500 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$523 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the strongest position for first place in Pernambuco’s October 4 Senate contest, backed by repeated polling leads across institutes including Real Time Big Data and Datafolha. Recent surveys from late August and early September show her consolidating 15–29% of first-plus-second preferences, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL), who remain statistically tied or narrowly behind in the battle for the second seat. The state elects two senators in a single round, amplifying the value of broad name recognition and alliances for Arraes, whose support has proven stable despite high undecided and blank/null shares. Trader pricing reflects this sustained advantage while assigning lower probabilities to trailing candidates amid limited recent shifts in voter intention or campaign dynamics.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$26,854End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the strongest position for first place in Pernambuco’s October 4 Senate contest, backed by repeated polling leads across institutes including Real Time Big Data and Datafolha. Recent surveys from late August and early September show her consolidating 15–29% of first-plus-second preferences, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL), who remain statistically tied or narrowly behind in the battle for the second seat. The state elects two senators in a single round, amplifying the value of broad name recognition and alliances for Arraes, whose support has proven stable despite high undecided and blank/null shares. Trader pricing reflects this sustained advantage while assigning lower probabilities to trailing candidates amid limited recent shifts in voter intention or campaign dynamics.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$26,854End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the strongest position for first place in Pernambuco’s October 4 Senate contest, backed by repeated polling leads across institutes including Real Time Big Data and Datafolha. Recent surveys from late August and early September show her consolidating 15–29% of first-plus-second preferences, ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) and Mendonça Filho (PL), who remain statistically tied or narrowly behind in the battle for the second seat. The state elects two senators in a single round, amplifying the value of broad name recognition and alliances for Arraes, whose support has proven stable despite high undecided and blank/null shares. Trader pricing reflects this sustained advantage while assigning lower probabilities to trailing candidates amid limited recent shifts in voter intention or campaign dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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