Recent polling in Sergipe's Senate race shows a fragmented field ahead of the October 4 election, with voters selecting two candidates for the state's two seats. Rogerio Carvalho (PT), an incumbent seeking reelection, and Delegado André David (Republicanos) lead or tie in most surveys at around 11%, followed closely by André Moura (UNIÃO), Delegado Alessandro (MDB), Eduardo Amorim (Republicanos), and others in the single digits, amid 20-35% undecided or blank responses. This produces the tight implied probabilities for second place, as shifting preferences among the top six contenders and late-deciding voters can easily reorder the finish. No major campaign events or endorsements have altered the landscape in recent days, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns and any final-week momentum among the leading names.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRogerio Carvalho 34%
Delegado André David 21.2%
André Moura 18%
Eduardo Amorim 14%
$23,668 Vol.
$23,668 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rogerio Carvalho
34%
Delegado André David
21%
André Moura
18%
Eduardo Amorim
14%
Delegado Alessandro
13%
Rodrigo Valadares
6%
Edvaldo
2%
Paulinho da União Tur
<1%
Renatinha
<1%
Coronel Rocha
<1%
Iran Barbosa
<1%
Rogerio Carvalho 34%
Delegado André David 21.2%
André Moura 18%
Eduardo Amorim 14%
$23,668 Vol.
$23,668 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rogerio Carvalho
$5,890 Vol.
34%
Delegado André David
$2,342 Vol.
21%
André Moura
$3,713 Vol.
18%
Eduardo Amorim
$2,539 Vol.
14%
Delegado Alessandro
$1,819 Vol.
13%
Rodrigo Valadares
$1,629 Vol.
6%
Edvaldo
$1,198 Vol.
2%
Paulinho da União Tur
$1,012 Vol.
<1%
Renatinha
$1,338 Vol.
<1%
Coronel Rocha
$776 Vol.
<1%
Iran Barbosa
$1,411 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Sergipe is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Sergipe's Senate race shows a fragmented field ahead of the October 4 election, with voters selecting two candidates for the state's two seats. Rogerio Carvalho (PT), an incumbent seeking reelection, and Delegado André David (Republicanos) lead or tie in most surveys at around 11%, followed closely by André Moura (UNIÃO), Delegado Alessandro (MDB), Eduardo Amorim (Republicanos), and others in the single digits, amid 20-35% undecided or blank responses. This produces the tight implied probabilities for second place, as shifting preferences among the top six contenders and late-deciding voters can easily reorder the finish. No major campaign events or endorsements have altered the landscape in recent days, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns and any final-week momentum among the leading names.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Sergipe is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:21 AM ET
Volume
$23,668End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Sergipe is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Sergipe's Senate race shows a fragmented field ahead of the October 4 election, with voters selecting two candidates for the state's two seats. Rogerio Carvalho (PT), an incumbent seeking reelection, and Delegado André David (Republicanos) lead or tie in most surveys at around 11%, followed closely by André Moura (UNIÃO), Delegado Alessandro (MDB), Eduardo Amorim (Republicanos), and others in the single digits, amid 20-35% undecided or blank responses. This produces the tight implied probabilities for second place, as shifting preferences among the top six contenders and late-deciding voters can easily reorder the finish. No major campaign events or endorsements have altered the landscape in recent days, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns and any final-week momentum among the leading names.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Sergipe is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$23,668End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:21 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in Sergipe's Senate race shows a fragmented field ahead of the October 4 election, with voters selecting two candidates for the state's two seats. Rogerio Carvalho (PT), an incumbent seeking reelection, and Delegado André David (Republicanos) lead or tie in most surveys at around 11%, followed closely by André Moura (UNIÃO), Delegado Alessandro (MDB), Eduardo Amorim (Republicanos), and others in the single digits, amid 20-35% undecided or blank responses. This produces the tight implied probabilities for second place, as shifting preferences among the top six contenders and late-deciding voters can easily reorder the finish. No major campaign events or endorsements have altered the landscape in recent days, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns and any final-week momentum among the leading names.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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