Polls for the Tocantins Senate race show Eduardo Gomes leading while Alexandre Guimarães and Gaguim compete closely for second place, with Guimarães holding a modest edge in August surveys from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas. The fragmented field, elevated undecided shares near 70 percent in some measures, and Gaguim’s comparatively higher rejection rates sustain tight implied probabilities around 48 percent for Guimarães and 33 percent for Gaguim. Remaining campaign momentum, regional endorsements, and any late shifts in voter consolidation among the 13 registered candidates could widen the gap ahead of the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlexandre Guimarães 49%
Gaguim 32.9%
Eduardo Gomes 8.7%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo 6%
$25,559 Vol.
$25,559 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Guimarães
49%
Gaguim
33%
Eduardo Gomes
9%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
6%
Ronaldo Dimas
4%
Paulo Mourão
3%
Eli Borges
1%
Nilton Santos
<1%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
<1%
Fábio Ribeiro
<1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
<1%
Osvany Luz
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
<1%
Alexandre Guimarães 49%
Gaguim 32.9%
Eduardo Gomes 8.7%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo 6%
$25,559 Vol.
$25,559 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Alexandre Guimarães
$13,761 Vol.
49%
Gaguim
$2,837 Vol.
33%
Eduardo Gomes
$1,282 Vol.
9%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
$386 Vol.
6%
Ronaldo Dimas
$342 Vol.
4%
Paulo Mourão
$4,410 Vol.
3%
Eli Borges
$489 Vol.
1%
Nilton Santos
$348 Vol.
<1%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
$347 Vol.
<1%
Fábio Ribeiro
$301 Vol.
<1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
$364 Vol.
<1%
Osvany Luz
$418 Vol.
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
$274 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Polls for the Tocantins Senate race show Eduardo Gomes leading while Alexandre Guimarães and Gaguim compete closely for second place, with Guimarães holding a modest edge in August surveys from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas. The fragmented field, elevated undecided shares near 70 percent in some measures, and Gaguim’s comparatively higher rejection rates sustain tight implied probabilities around 48 percent for Guimarães and 33 percent for Gaguim. Remaining campaign momentum, regional endorsements, and any late shifts in voter consolidation among the 13 registered candidates could widen the gap ahead of the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$25,559End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Polls for the Tocantins Senate race show Eduardo Gomes leading while Alexandre Guimarães and Gaguim compete closely for second place, with Guimarães holding a modest edge in August surveys from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas. The fragmented field, elevated undecided shares near 70 percent in some measures, and Gaguim’s comparatively higher rejection rates sustain tight implied probabilities around 48 percent for Guimarães and 33 percent for Gaguim. Remaining campaign momentum, regional endorsements, and any late shifts in voter consolidation among the 13 registered candidates could widen the gap ahead of the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$25,559End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polls for the Tocantins Senate race show Eduardo Gomes leading while Alexandre Guimarães and Gaguim compete closely for second place, with Guimarães holding a modest edge in August surveys from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas. The fragmented field, elevated undecided shares near 70 percent in some measures, and Gaguim’s comparatively higher rejection rates sustain tight implied probabilities around 48 percent for Guimarães and 33 percent for Gaguim. Remaining campaign momentum, regional endorsements, and any late shifts in voter consolidation among the 13 registered candidates could widen the gap ahead of the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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